Midterm Election Poll: Florida’s 26th District, Curbelo vs. Mucarsel-Powell
We polled voters in Florida’s 26th Congressional District.
This poll was conducted from Sept. 13 to Sept. 17.
A Democratic-leaning district represented by a Republican. We made 46010 calls, and 509 people spoke to us.
Carlos Curbelo, the Republican candidate, has a slight edge in our poll.
Given expectations, our poll is a decent result for Democrats. But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 509 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.
Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 46010 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answerTo preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is an immigrant from Ecuador who moved to the U.S. as a teenager. 19% favorable rating; 13% unfavorable; 68% don’t know
Based on 509 interviews
Carlos Curbelo is the current representative and a Cuban-American. He voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. 52% favorable rating; 27% unfavorable; 21% don’t know
Based on 509 interviews
This strongly Hispanic South Florida district was created in 2012 and encompasses most of southern Miami-Dade County, Key West and all three of Florida's national parks.
Mr. Curbelo has disagreed with President Trump on some immigration issues. He initiated a seldom-used procedural maneuver to try to force the House to vote on a series of immigration proposals, a bold gesture that fell short by two votes.
Mr. Curbelo has also distanced himself from the president in other areas, calling the accumulation of Trump-related scandals a “sad chapter in our country’s politics.” But he voted for the G.O.P. tax overhaul; he helped draft the legislation as a member of the congressional tax-writing committee.
Ms. Mucarsel-Powell has said she was inspired to run for Congress the day that Mr. Curbelo voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. She has worked as an associate dean at Florida International University and as a volunteer for a variety of environmental causes.
Previous election results:
2016 President | +16 Clinton |
2012 President | +12 Obama |
2016 House | +12 Rep. |
It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
Polls | Dates | Mucarsel-Powell | Curbelo | Margin |
---|---|---|---|---|
Siena College/New York Times n = 499 lv | Oct. 19-24 | 45% | 44% | Even |
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. 625 lv | Oct. 3-9 | 45% | 46% | Curbelo +1 |
GBA Strategies (D.) 500 lv | Sept. 27-Oct. 1 | 50% | 48% | Mucarsel-Powell +2 |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D.) 500 lv | Sept. 23-27 | 49% | 48% | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
Public Policy Polling (D.) 511 v | Sept. 17-18 | 46% | 45% | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
GBA Strategies (D.) 500 lv | July 16-22 | 41% | 48% | Curbelo +7 |
DCCC Targeting Team (D.) 400 rv | Mar. 17-22 | 40% | 45% | Curbelo +5 |
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How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
If sampling error were the only type of error in a poll, we would expect candidates who trail by four points in a poll of 509 people to win about one out of every four races. But this probably understates the total error by a factor of two.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
---|---|---|
The types of people who voted in 2014 | 157k | Curbelo +7 |
Our estimate | 179k | Curbelo +4 |
People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | 182k | Curbelo +4 |
People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | 198k | Curbelo +5 |
People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | 208k | Curbelo +9 |
The types of people who voted in 2016 | 268k | Curbelo +5 |
Every active registered voter | 401k | Curbelo +7 |
All estimates based on 509 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different turnout scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible turnout scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
Called | Inter- viewed | Success rate | Our responses | Goal | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
18 to 29 | 2942 | 67 | 1 in 44 | 13% | 10% |
30 to 64 | 15906 | 298 | 1 in 53 | 59% | 58% |
65 and older | 5502 | 144 | 1 in 38 | 28% | 32% |
Male | 9697 | 253 | 1 in 38 | 50% | 45% |
Female | 14659 | 256 | 1 in 57 | 50% | 55% |
White | 3674 | 140 | 1 in 26 | 28% | 22% |
Nonwhite | 20212 | 357 | 1 in 57 | 70% | 76% |
Cell | 18183 | 408 | 1 in 45 | 80% | — |
Landline | 6173 | 101 | 1 in 61 | 20% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, education and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
Our poll result | |
---|---|
Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | Curbelo +2 |
Our estimate | Curbelo +4 |
Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | Curbelo +7 |
Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls | Curbelo +11 |
All estimates based on 509 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 9 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Democrats.
If they were to break 2 to 1 in favor of Democrats, that alone would be enough to change the lead in our poll, assuming we did everything else perfectly. (We could also be wrong on turnout or our sample could be unrepresentative. Or other voters could change their minds.)
Issues and other questions
We’re asking voters here several questions about immigration, including whether they’d like to eliminate Immigration and Customs Enforcement (an agency known as ICE), whether it bothers them to hear immigrants speaking a foreign language in public places and whether they think illegal immigrants living in the United States are more likely than American citizens to commit serious crimes.
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 39% | 54% | 7% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
Reps. keep House | Dems. take House | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 43% | 50% | 7% |
Do you favor abolishing ICE, the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency?
Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 32% | 60% | 8% |
Do you support a bill that would reduce legal immigration and provide funds for a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border?
Support | Oppose | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 39% | 57% | 4% |
Do you support or oppose a federal ban on the sale of assault-style guns and high-capacity magazines?
support | oppose | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 58% | 38% | 4% |
Are iIllegal immigrants living in the United States more likely than American citizens to commit serious crimes?
agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 21% | 74% | 5% |
Does it bother you to hear immigrants speak a foreign language in a public place?
agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 17% | 80% | 2% |
Are there places in your area, say within a mile of where you live, where you're afraid to walk alone at night?
agree | disagree | Don’t know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 26% | 72% | 2% |
How concerned are you that you, your family or other people that you know will suffer due to the effect climate change may have on the area where you live?
Not or not very | Very or somewhat | Don't know | |
---|---|---|---|
Voters n = 509 | 28% | 70% | 1% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Female n = 256 / 54% of voters | 46% | 44% | 10% |
Male 253 / 46% | 41% | 51% | 8% |
Age
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
18 to 29 n = 67 / 10% of voters | 52% | 34% | 14% |
30 to 44 80 / 16% | 44% | 46% | 9% |
45 to 64 218 / 41% | 43% | 46% | 10% |
65 and older 144 / 33% | 42% | 53% | 5% |
Race
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
White n = 158 / 25% of voters | 47% | 43% | 10% |
Black 42 / 10% | 87% | 5% | 8% |
Hispanic 292 / 61% | 35% | 57% | 8% |
Asian 4 / 1% | 16% | 22% | 62% |
Other 7 / 2% | 61% | 39% | — |
Race and education
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Nonwhite n = 345 / 74% of voters | 43% | 49% | 8% |
White, college grad 87 / 11% | 58% | 37% | 6% |
White, not college grad 71 / 15% | 39% | 48% | 13% |
Education
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
H.S. Grad. or Less n = 68 / 28% of voters | 37% | 55% | 8% |
Some College Educ. 168 / 33% | 41% | 49% | 10% |
4-year College Grad. 132 / 26% | 51% | 39% | 10% |
Post-grad. 135 / 13% | 54% | 40% | 5% |
Region
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Monroe n = 108 / 18% of voters | 49% | 45% | 7% |
North Miami-Dade 226 / 46% | 36% | 54% | 9% |
South Miami-Dade 175 / 37% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
Party
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Democrat n = 179 / 38% of voters | 81% | 10% | 9% |
Republican 178 / 35% | 6% | 92% | 2% |
Independent 133 / 24% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
Another party 11 / 2% | 32% | 58% | 9% |
Party registration
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Democratic n = 197 / 40% of voters | 77% | 13% | 10% |
Republican 197 / 36% | 9% | 87% | 4% |
Other 115 / 24% | 39% | 45% | 15% |
Intention of voting
Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
---|---|---|---|
Almost certain n = 294 / 60% of voters | 43% | 51% | 5% |
Very likely 136 / 26% | 52% | 40% | 8% |
Somewhat likely 36 / 8% | 29% | 47% | 23% |
Not very likely 18 / 2% | 21% | 51% | 28% |
Not at all likely 19 / 2% | 47% | 33% | 20% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.37. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.