Analysis: Trump immigration policy is political gift to Bill Nelson and other Democrats

With his just-rescinded policy of separating immigrant children and parents at the nation’s southern border, President Donald Trump gave a big political gift to U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson.

Though partisans on both sides said politics wasn’t motivating their responses to the issue, plenty of politicians stand to gain and lose.

In Florida, that’s especially true for Democrat Nelson and Gov. Rick Scott, the Republican challenger who hopes to unseat the senator in November.

— When Nelson, along with U.S. Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, were turned away Tuesday when they attempted to inspect the Homestead Temporary Shelter for Unaccompanied Children, where more than 1,000 migrant teenagers are held, they got something politically valuable: enormous publicity fighting an unpopular policy.

— Nelson got a chance to shore up his standing among Hispanic voters, after a week during which many state political observers were discussing the senator’s need to do better with the crucial Florida voting bloc.

— Scott was forced to echo Nelson and distance himself from Trump, who is a big supporter of Scott’s effort to wrest the Florida Senate seat out of the Democrat’s hands.

Charles Zelden, a professor of history and legal studies who specializes in politics and voting at Nova Southeastern University, said it’s a good issue politically for Democratic politicians because it appears both heartfelt and it plays well with Democratic voters. And, he said, politicians heading to Homestead are playing it smart.

“Nelson and Wasserman Schultz going down to Homestead, that was just P.R. They wanted to go, they wanted to be seen, they wanted to raise awareness,” Zelden said. Actually, he said, getting denied admission served their political interests even better. Tactically, it would have been smarter for the operators to allow them in, without a media presence. Broward state Rep. Jared Moskowitz and other Democratic leaders held their own news conference in Homestead on Wednesday.

Nelson followed up Wednesday with a speech on the Senate floor. And Wasserman Schultz achieved something unusual for a Democrat on Wednesday when the Republican-controlled House Appropriations Committee accepted her amendment to allow members of Congress to visit facilities where migrant children are being held.

The issue also gave a boost to Wasserman Schultz, who has gone back and forth with the president since she was the chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee and he was a presidential candidate. Some in the far left of the Democratic Party think Wasserman Schultz is too moderate, and she once again faces an election challenge from a progressive candidate — Democrat-turned-independent Tim Canova. Forcefully standing up to Trump does nothing but help Wasserman Schultz with the majority of voters in the Broward/Miami-Dade County 23rd Congressional District, Zelden said.

Especially in Florida, where Hispanic voters can be the tipping point in the state’s notoriously close elections, Zelden said Scott had to distance himself from the Trump policy to avoid the “toxic subject.”

“He had no choice. The fact that he’s so closely aligned with Trump means he had to come out even more,” he said. “But in people’s minds, a vote for Scott is a voter for Trump. He’ll live or die on that connection … But he had to make an effort to reach out [to others] and say ‘I’m not a monster. This bothers me too, the images, the audio, these children.’”

Scott Newmark, president of Broward’s Donald Trump Club, said Scott would get a pass from Trump supporters even though he disagreed with the president.

With loyal Democrats locked in for Nelson and Republicans for Scott, Zelden and Newmark said the governor needs to appeal to voters in the middle.

“And particularly, they’re fighting over well-educated, suburban women who have the potential to be the swing vote in the midterm elections,” Zelden said.

A nationwide Quinnipiac University Poll released Monday found American voters opposed — 66 percent to 27 percent — the policy of separating children and parents when families illegally cross the border into the U.S.

Independents opposed the policy 68 percent to 24 percent.

Democrats opposed the policy 91 percent to 7 percent and Republicans supported it, 55 percent to 35 percent.

Because he is assured of the Senate nomination, Newmark said Scott “can afford to take a political position that positions himself to appeal to independent voters, and I believe that’s why he’s taking that position.” Scott already has the support of Trump backers, Newmark said, “and even if they’re angry they’re not going to vote for Senator Nelson.”

Newmark said many Trump supporters are upset – “with the Congress, and specifically on the Republican side of the aisle, for not standing strong backing the president in a moment of crisis.”

He said Trump supporters see the Republican congressional reaction as “being disloyal to the president. … The overwhelming consensus is that the Republican RINOs as we call them have caved again. They’re just incapable of standing strong with the president.”

Newmark said the Democrats’ pilgrimages to Homestead was “complete grandstanding. There’s no reason to do it. They did it for political purposes.”

But Ken Evans, the state Democratic committeeman, said political gain isn’t the motivating factor.

“It may help Democrats, but that’s not really the issue here. The issue is children. The issue is children being separated from their families,” Evans said. “Whatever party this helps, let it be, but in the meantime let’s not have children separated from their families.”

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