Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report: Vol. 8, 2018

From Ballotpedia
Jump to: navigation, search
Ballotpedia-Elections-Portal-Masthead-Image-icons.png
Ballotpedia Election Coverage Badge.png

2018 State Election Analysis
All state elections
Statewide ballot measures • State government trifectas • Trifecta vulnerability • Veto-proof state legislatures • Noteworthy third party candidates • Officials seeking other offices • Incumbent win rates
State legislative elections
Battleground chambers • Partisan balance of chambers • Number of state legislators by party • Supermajorities • Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report • Open seats • Incumbents defeated • Races decided by fewer than 100 votes • State legislative seats flipped • State legislative margins of victory
State executive elections
State government triplexes • Partisan balance of governors • Annual State Executive Competitiveness Report • Impact of term limits on state executive elections in 2018 • States with gubernatorial and U.S. Senate elections • Prediction markets • Battleground polls
State judicial elections
Federal election analysis
Local election analysis
All election results

Ballotpedia's 8th Annual State Legislative Competitiveness Report analyzes the features of all 6,073 state legislative elections that took place in November 2018. Key findings include:

HIGHLIGHTS
  • 2,017 state legislative elections did not have major party competition; they featured a candidate from just one of the two major political parties.
  • Democratic candidates contested more state legislative elections than in any even-year cycle since 2010; Republicans contested fewer than in any even-year cycle since 2010.
  • 1,181 state legislative incumbents did not seek re-election. A total of 723 were Republicans, and 427 were Democrats.
  • Nearly one-fifth of state legislators elected in 2018 were guaranteed to be newcomers.

    • This report is organized into five sections. They are:

    Races without major party competition

    See also: Major party candidates with major party competition in the November 2018 state legislative elections

    When a candidate from only one of either the Democratic or Republican parties runs for a state legislative seat, the seat is all but guaranteed to be won by that party. In 2018, 2,017 state legislative seats did not feature major party competition.

    • 746 state legislative elections (12.3 percent of all state legislative elections) did not feature a Democratic candidate and were likely to be won by a Republican, the fewest since 2010. In other words, Democrats were contesting 87.7 percent of all state legislative seats.
    • 1,271 elections (20.9 percent of all state legislative elections) did not feature a Republican candidate and were likely to be won by a Democrat, the most since 2010. In other words, Republicans were contesting 79.1 percent of all state legislative seats.
    • In 11 states, more than half of all candidates did not face major party competition.
    • In five states, more than 90 percent of all candidates did face major party competition.

    Click [show] on the table below to see details of seats up for election without major party competition in each state.

    Historical comparison

    Democratic candidates were contesting their largest number of seats, and Republicans were contesting their smallest number of seats, since the 2010 election cycle.

    More seats were guaranteed for Democrats (1,271), and fewer seats were guaranteed for Republicans (746), than in any cycle since 2010.

    The reduction in the number of seats guaranteed to Republicans in 2018 relative to 2016 (1,210 to 746 seats, a 38.3 percent decrease) was the largest cycle-to-cycle change for either party since 2010.

    Seats without major party competition
    Year Total seats without major party competition (percent of total elections) Seats without a Democratic candidate (percent of total elections) Seats without a Republican candidate (percent of total elections)
    2018 2,017 (33.2%) 746 (12.3%) 1,271 (20.9%)
    2016 2,477 (41.8%) 1,210 (20.4%) 1,262 (21.3%)
    2014 2,606 (43.0%) 937 (15.7%) 851 (14.0%)
    2012 2,409 (40.0%) 1,262 (21.0%) 1,147 (19.1%)
    2010 2,000 (32.7%) 1,057 (17.3%) 943 (15.4%)

    To read more about races without major party competition in 2018 state legislative elections, click here.

    Incumbents not seeking re-election

    See also: Open seats in the 2018 state legislative elections

    In districts where the incumbent legislator does not file for re-election, the seat is guaranteed to a newcomer.

    • 1,181 state legislative incumbents did not run for re-election.[2] In other words, nearly 20 percent of all state legislative seats won in the 2018 cycle were guaranteed to be held by a newly elected state legislator, the most since 2012.
    • 427 Democratic state legislators (36.2 percent of the total) did not seek re-election.
    • 723 Republican state legislators (61.2 percent of the total) did not seek re-election.

    Click [show] on the table header below for complete, state-by-state information on retiring incumbents and guaranteed newcomers.

    Historical comparison

    To read more about incumbents not seeking re-election in 2018, and guaranteed newcomers, click here.

    Aftermath of the 2016 presidential election

    See also: Aftermath of the 2016 presidential election in 2018 state legislative elections

    In 43 states, it was possible to compare the overall state legislative retirement rate to the state legislative retirement rate specifically among legislators representing districts that were carried by the opposite party's candidate in the 2016 presidential election.[3]

    • Clinton Republicans and Trump Democrats both had higher retirement rates than their party averages, although the difference was larger for Trump Democrats. In other words, legislators retired at a higher rate if their district backed the opposing party's presidential candidate, particularly Democratic legislators in districts that backed Donald Trump.
    • Trump Democrats represented 13.7 percent of all Democratic-held districts up for election in 2018 but accounted for 18.1 percent of all Democratic retirements.
    • Clinton Republicans represented 11.8 percent of all Republican-held districts up for election in 2018 but accounted for 14.3 percent of all Republican retirements.

    Incumbent retirement rates can also be analyzed according to whether a retiring incumbent's district intersects with a pivot county, meaning that it was carried by Barack Obama (D) in the 2008 and 2012 elections and by Donald Trump (R) in the 2016 election.

    • Pivot county legislators of both parties had higher-than-average retirement rates, although the difference was larger among Republicans.
    • Pivot County Republicans represented 11.2 percent of all Republican-held districts up for election in 2018 but accounted for 15.3 percent of all Republican retirements.
    • Pivot County Democrats represented 9.6 percent of all Democratic-held districts up for election in 2018 but accounted for 10.8 percent of Democratic retirements.

    To read more about the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election in 2018's state legislative elections, click here.

    Impact of term limits

    See also: Impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2018

    At the time of the 2018 elections, fifteen states in the U.S. used term limits for state legislators. All of them held elections in 2018 except for Louisiana.

    • 271 state legislators were ineligible to run for re-election in 2018 due to term limits.
    • Republicans had twice as many term-limited state legislators as Democrats; 177 Republicans were term-limited, while 86 Democrats were term-limited.
    • 223 state legislators were term-limited in 2014, the previous mid-term election cycle.

    Term limits create open seats, which tend to draw more competitors than when an incumbent runs for re-election because incumbents in state legislative elections win elections at a higher rate. For example, between 1972 and 2014, the state legislative incumbency win rate never fell below 90 percent, with the exception of 1974 when 88 percent of incumbents won re-election.

    The table below details the termed-out state legislators in 2018 and gives a breakdown of the totals for each legislative chamber.

    Senate

    Ninety-six state senators in 12 state senates were term-limited in 2018. Twenty-eight of them were Democrats, 62 were Republicans, and six were nonpartisan. The Democratic Party was the majority party in one of the 12 term-limited state senates with elections in 2018, while the Republican Party was the majority in 10 of the 12 state senates. Nebraska's state Senate had term-limited members, but it was officially nonpartisan.

    In 2014, the most recent midterm election year, a total of 63 state senators in 13 states were term-limited. This included 22 incumbent Democrats, 24 incumbent Republicans, and 17 nonpartisan legislators. In 2010, the last midterm election year preceding 2014, a total of 122 state senators in 13 states were term-limited. This included 55 incumbent Democrats, 66 incumbent Republicans, and one nonpartisan legislator.

    House

    One hundred seventy-five state representatives in 12 state houses are term-limited in 2018. Fifty-eight of them were Democrats, 115 were Republicans, and two were independent. The Democratic Party is the majority party in four of the 12 term-limited state houses with elections in 2018, while the Republican Party holds the majority in eight of the 12 state houses.

    In 2014, the most recent midterm election year, a total of 160 state representatives in 13 states were term-limited. This included 73 incumbent Democrats and 87 incumbent Republicans. In 2010, the last midterm election year preceding 2014, a total of 253 state representatives in 13 states were term-limited. This included 127 incumbent Democrats, 124 incumbent Republicans, and two nonpartisan legislators.

    To read more about the impact of term limits on state legislative elections in 2018, click here.

    Competitiveness in primary elections

    See also: 2018 primary election competitiveness in state and federal government

    As the chart below shows, there were roughly 1,200 more primary candidates in 2018 than in 2016 and 2014. Additionally, both parties saw more contested primaries than in previous years, more incumbents faced primary challengers, and there were more open seats due to retirements. To learn more about competitiveness in state legislative primaries in 2018, visit this page.

    To read more about the competitiveness of state legislative primary elections in 2018, click here.

    See also

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Four states did not hold any regularly-scheduled state legislative elections in 2018. Those states were Louisiana, Mississippi, New Jersey, and Virginia.
    2. ↑ This number includes legislators who did not file for re-election or who filed to run for re-election but withdrew before the primary.
    3. ↑ Alabama and Arkansas were excluded from this analysis due to a lack of detailed 2016 presidential election results. Nebraska was excluded since its legislature is officially nonpartisan.
    v • e
    Competitiveness in State Legislative Elections
    Background
    Competitive Analysis Main Logo.JPG
    2023
    2022
    2021
    2020
    2019
    2018
    2017
    2016
    2015
    2014
    2013
    2012
    2011
    2010
    2009
    2007
    v • e
    State legislatures
    Legislatures
    Alabama (H, S) · Alaska (H, S) · Arizona (H, S) · Arkansas (H, S) · California (A, S) · Colorado (H, S) · Connecticut (H, S) · Delaware (H, S) · Florida (H, S) · Georgia (H, S) · Hawaii (H, S) · Idaho (H, S) · Illinois (H, S) · Indiana (H, S) · Iowa (H, S) · Kansas (H, S) · Kentucky (H, S) · Louisiana (H, S) · Maine (H, S) · Maryland (H, S) · Massachusetts (H, S) · Michigan (H, S) · Minnesota (H, S) · Mississippi (H, S) · Missouri (H, S) · Montana (H, S) · Nebraska · Nevada (A, S) · New Hampshire (H, S) · New Jersey (GA, S) · New Mexico (H, S) · New York (A, S) · North Carolina (H, S) · North Dakota (H, S) · Ohio (H, S) · Oklahoma (H, S) · Oregon (H, S) · Pennsylvania (H, S) · Rhode Island (H, S) · South Carolina (H, S) · South Dakota (H, S) · Tennessee (H, S) · Texas (H, S) · Utah (H, S) · Vermont (H, S) · Virginia (H, S) · Washington (H, S) · West Virginia (H, S) · Wisconsin (A, S) · Wyoming (H, S)
    SLP badge.png
    2024
    2023
    Historical elections
    2022 •  2021 • 2020 • 2019 • 2018 • 2017 • 2016 • 2015 • 2014 • 2013 • 2012 • 2011 • 2010 • 2009 • 2008 • 2007 • 2006 • 2005 • 2004 • 2003 • 2002 • 2001 • 2000
    Features of
    state legislatures
    State senates
    State houses
    Leadership positions
    v • e
    Ballotpedia
    About
    Executive: Leslie Graves, President • Gwen Beattie, Chief Operating Officer • Ken Carbullido, Vice President of Election Product and Technology Strategy • Michelle Robinson, Senior Product Manager, Education & School Boards

    Communications: Alison Graves • Carley Allensworth • Abigail Campbell • Sarah Groat • Erica Shumaker
    External Relations: Andrew Heath • Moira Delaney • Hannah Nelson
    Operations: Meghann Olshefski • Amanda Herbert • Mandy Morris • Caroline Presnell • Kelly Rindfleisch
    Policy: Caitlin Styrsky • Molly Byrne • Jon Dunn • Jimmy McAllister • Annelise Reinwald
    Research: Josh Altic
    Tech: Matt Latourelle • Ryan Burch • Kirsten Corrao • Beth Dellea • Travis Eden • Tate Kamish • Margaret Kearney • Eric Lotto • Trevor Pollo • Joseph Sanchez

    Contributors: Scott Rasmussen
    Editorial
    Retrieved from "https://ballotpedia.org/wiki/index.php?title=Annual_State_Legislative_Competitiveness_Report:_Vol._8,_2018&oldid=8709415"