Anybody Can Win This Race: Top Political Scientist Lawless on Special Election to Replace Cicilline

Thursday, February 23, 2023

 

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U.S. Representative David Cicilline. PHOTO: GoLocal

When Congressman David Cicilline (D-RI) announced this week he will be stepping down from Congress at the end of the spring to take the helm fo the RI Foundation, the floodgates opened for potential candidates to express their interest in the seat — see here.

UVA Political Science Chair Jennifer Lawless — who previously ran for Congress herself when she took on now former Congressman Jim Langevin in the Democratic primary in 2006 — appeared on GoLocal LIVE to talk about Cicilline’s departure, and the race to replace him. 

“It seems to me that he has faced and has comes to term with the fact that he’s facing a career ceiling, and by that I mean the length of time he’s been in Congress has been the length of time that if you’re going to acquire the kind of leadership he’s seeking, he would have already acquired it,” said Lawless. “He tried to challenge Jim Clyburn for a leadership position and was basically told not to, and Hakeem Jeffries and Katherine Clark were able to surpass him, so I think he saw the writing on the wall.”

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As for who could replace Cicilline — Lawless say she believes the door is wide open — for anybody. 

“I think it’s a smart shot for anybody that has ambitions to to go to Washington — if the expectation is that the general election [will] be in November of 2023 then the primary would likely be in September, so if you win the primary and then with the General Election you’re basically an incumbent heading into 2024 which has higher turnout and a more competitive feel,” said Lawless. “But as the incumbent, as long as you do a decent job, you benefit from all of the advantages of incumbency including the sitting members of the delegation not campaigning against you.”

 

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Jennifer Lawless. PHOTO: File

Elected Officials in Focus

Lawless talked about those politicians who are currently in office who have expressed interest — and what that means specifically for them. 

“It’s really a free shot — you don’t have to resign your current position because it’s ‘off-cycle’ so if you lose, you haven’t lost anything except the amount of time you spent campaigning,” said Lawless. 

“Part of the reason that I think anybody with ambition has to take it seriously is because in a normal set of circumstances, if you’re in the General Assembly or in the State Senate and you want to run for Congress, you need to introduce yourself to the entire 1st Congressional District,” added Lawless.

“Here, because it’s going to be such a crowded field, you probably have enough votes in your own House or State Senate District if you’re popular to deliver — if you can deliver them, that might actually be enough to win, and then have the full year to introduce yourself to the entire district and get elected in 2024.”

 

Related Slideshow: Potential First Congressional District Candidates - June 13, 2023

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RUNNING

Don Carlson, Jamestown (D)

According to his bio, Carlson's career has included executive, educator, attorney, and entrepreneur roles. 

Now, he counts Congressional candidate on his resume. 

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RUNNING

RI House Finance Chair Marvin Abney, Newport (D)

GoLocalProv broke the news that the powerful state legislator would officially be announcing his candidacy. 

As GoLocal reported, he is widely respected for his evenhandedness in chairing the Finance Committee. He has been known to allow hundreds of witnesses to testify on a single piece of legislation.

His resume looks very different from many of the candidates. 

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RUNNING

Aaron Regunberg, Providence (D)

The progressive former State Representative -- and candidate for Rhode Island Lt. Governor -- officially announced his candidacy on April 10. 

The "almost Governor" lost to Dan McKee by just 2466 votes in 2018. He went on to serve as a policy advisor to Providence Mayor Jorge Elorza. 

Had he won that Lt. Governor's race, he would have stopped into the Governorship when former Governor Gina Raimondo left for DC. 

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RUNNING

Lt. Governor Sabina Matos, Providence (D)

Rumors were swirling quickly out of the State House that Matos, who served as the President of the City Council, was looking at a potential run.

She is officially in. 

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RUNNING

Senator Sandra Cano, Pawtucket (D)

Cano has announced she is running for Rhode Island’s First Congressional seat. 

Sandra Cano lives in Pawtucket with her fiancé, James, their daughter, Arianna Hallel, and their son, Alessandro James.

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RUNNING

Nick Autiello, Providence (D)

A former Commerce RI staffer, Autiello also ran for Rhode Island State Senate in 2018. 

He had previously worked as a Republican operative. 

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RUNNING

John Goncalves, Providence (D)

The Providence City Councilman has made a formal announcement that he is running. 

He currently represents Ward 1 in Providence -- Fox Point and the East Side. 

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RUNNING

Allen Waters, Providence, (D)

The former Republican -- who has run for multiple seats under the GOP mantle -- has now rebranded himself a "Blue Dog Democrat." 

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RUNNING

Ana Quezada, Providence (D)

The Rhode Island State Senator, who was first elected to the body in November 2016, was the Senate sponsor of legislation -- since signed into law -- which will raise Rhode Island's minimum wage to $15 an hour by Jan. 1, 2025. 

She filed her intent to run for the Congressional seat with the FEC on April 6. 

"I will not be the person with the most money in this campaign. However, I know that I have what it takes hope to represent Rhode Island in Congress," said Quezada. "I ask all my friends and supporters who advocated for me to run to stand with me now as we build the largest grassroots campaign of all the current candidates."

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RUNNING

Representative Stephen Casey, Woonsocket (D)

Casey (D) has represented Woonsocket in District 50 since his first election in November 2012. He is the chairman of the House Municipal Government and Housing Committee.

He filed his papers with the FEC on April 10. 

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RUNNING

Gabe Amo (D)

The former Gina Ramondo staffer -- who also counts working in the Obama White House among his political experience -- is leaving his latest post in the Biden White House as special assistant to the President to make a run. 

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RUNNING

Walter Berbrick, Newport (D)

The former Navy intelligence officer and former U.S. Naval War College professor has officially launched his campaign. 

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RUNNING

Stephanie Beaute, Providence (D)

Beauté, a former candidate for Rhode Island Secretary of State, calls herself "a dynamic mother, passionate advocate, and relentless problem-solver, charging into Congress to ignite real change in Washington, D.C."

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RUNNING

Bella Machado Noka, South County 

A long-time civic activist and Tribal Elder of the Narragansett Aboriginal Nation, Noka announced her intent to run at the end of May.

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NOT ANNOUNCED

Nirva LaFortune, Providence (D)

Former Providence City Councilor and candidate for Mayor in 2022 says she is considering a run.

"There will likely be many talented candidates who eventually decide to run for Congress. Should I decide to join this race, I am confident that I will bring the passion and commitment necessary to represent the needs of the First District's constituents at one of the toughest times in our nation's history," said LaFortune.

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NOT RUNNING

Mayor Don Grebien, Pawtucket (D)

In the spring, Pawtucket Mayor Don Grebien told GoLocal, "I’m still doing my due diligence, meeting with community leaders and elected officials, including other mayors, labor, and business leaders."

In June, Grebien declared he would be making a candidate endorsement, effectively quashing any question of a run. 

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NOT RUNNING

Representative Nathan Biah, Providence (D)

Biah -- a Liberian refugee, Providence high school principal, and State Representative, had announced a run in the spring; he then announced he was dropping out to run for the special election for the late Senator Maryellen Goodwin's seat on Rhode Island Senate District 1. 

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NOT RUNNING

Arlene Violet, Barrington (RI)

The former Rhode Island Attorney General ended speculation in mid-April that she would throw her hat in the ring.

She released a statement saying she would not be running. 

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NOT RUNNING

Pamela Azar, Lincoln (D)

The third-term Lincoln Town Councilor had announced she would be running -- before announcing her support for another candidate.

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NOT RUNNING

Central Falls Mayor Maria Rivera, Central Falls (D)

After Rivera told GoLocal in February she was “considering” running -- she is out. 

“There’s a lot to consider  — it’s happening very quick,” said Rivera at the time. “ I’ve got to talk with my team. I love my city.”

Ultimately, Rivera opted not to run. 

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NOT RUNNING

Attorney General Peter Neronha, Jamestown (D)

Neronha is in his second term and is term-limited. He functionally has not had a competitive race in his previous two campaigns.

Neronha tells GoLocal, "Not making any decisions today. Love my job as AG."

In November, he won with 61% of the vote.

One of his advantages is he has high name recognition.

He has just $43,000 in his campaign account.

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NOT RUNNING

Newport Mayor Xay Khamsyvoravong (D)

The mayor might be new, but he is experienced and aggressive.

He won by a huge margin in November.

Running for the City Council at large -- he won more than 4,900 more votes than the second-place candidate, former Mayor Jeanne-Marie Napolitano. As the top council vote-getter, he won the mayor's position.

Previously he lived in Providence and was a top staffer for Frank Caprio in his 2010 run for Governor.

He told GoLocal he is not running -- he is "focused on Newport."

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NOT RUNNING

Jorge Elorza, Providence (D)

The former Providence Mayor had a checkered eight years in Providence.

But with a base in Providence and a campaign account with $966,301.63 -- he would be viable in a crowded primary.

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NOT RUNNING

Speaker of the House Joe Shekarchi, Warwick (D)

Shekarchi announced on March 17 he would not run.

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NOT RUNNING

Helena Foulkes, Narragansett (D)

The former President of CVS lost to Governor Dan McKee in the Democratic primary by less than 4,000 votes.

On March 20, Foulkes announced the following: 

"Over the past few weeks, I have been humbled by the outpouring of support and encouragement from many of you urging me to run for Rhode Island’s soon-to-be vacant congressional seat in the first district. Your unwavering support fills me with immense gratitude, and I’m confident that with our collective effort, we could have run a successful campaign. But I wanted you to hear it from me first: I have decided not to run for Congress. 

PHOTO: Cicilline Campaign

 
 

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