Nikki Haley Channels Her Inner JFK - Horowitz

Tuesday, February 21, 2023

 

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Nikki Haley PHOTO: Official United Nations

Making an explicit generational appeal reminiscent of John F Kennedy and Gary Hart, Nikki Haley kicked off her presidential campaign last week. The former ambassador to the Union Nations in the Trump administration and governor of South Carolina, declared her candidacy for the Republican nomination with an announcement video, followed up by an impressive live event, held in her home state of South Carolina.

 

“We’re ready, ready to move past the stale ideas and faded names of the past,” Nikki Haley told the crowd at the Charleston Visitor Center. “And we are more than ready for a new generation to lead us into the future.” In case anyone missed her point, the 51years old Haley, called for “mandatory mental competency tests” for politicians older than 75.  As the former South Carolina governor well-knows, these tests would apply to both Donald Trump and Joe Biden.

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A test for the Haley candidacy going forward will be whether she can she flesh out her generational appeal by marrying her undeniable charisma and, by today’s political standards, youthful vigor with appealing new ideas that set her apart.  This was the key to JFK’s successful 1960 candidacy and Gary Hart’s near upset of Walter Mondale in the 1984 contest for the Democratic nomination—a race where nearly the entire party establishment supported Mondale.  Both on the economy and in foreign affairs, for example, JFK put forward a compelling agenda for “getting the country moving again.”

 

The issues she outlined in her announcement speech were a standard potpourri of positions that are embraced by most Republican elected officials. There was little or nothing that sounded innovative or new.  All the candidates are going to be for cracking down on illegal immigration and opposing “woke” so-called indoctrination of our children.  Haley can gain traction, especially in these next few months by offering new conservative ideas that resonate with the working-class base of the party. One possibility is proposing new federal incentives to reward work and family formation that can be framed as important economically and way to renew traditional American values. 

 

She can also distinguish herself from Donald Trump and some of the other potential candidates as well as highlight her experience as an ambassador, by emphasizing her strong unequivocal position in favor of standing up to Vladimir Putin and fully backing the brave Ukrainians. While there is a growing isolationism among Republican primary voters, there remains substantial support for aiding Ukraine.

 

In these next few months, Nikki Haley would be wise to resist all the calls by pundits to directly attack Donald Trump.  She does, however, need a better answer when asked where she disagrees with Trump than completely dodging the question as she did in various interviews she has given since her announcement. It can be as simple as “We need a candidate focused on an agenda for the future, not the battles of yesterday.”

 

Still, job 1 for Nikki Haley, who begins this race relatively unknown and undefined, is to define herself and add heft to her candidacy.  In a perfect political world for Nikki Haley, some other candidate, such as Ron DeSantis, will take on the task of going after Trump and the possible mutually assured destruction will create an opening for her. 

 

It is the case as we learned in 2016 when all the candidates were looking to someone else to take on Trump, that this can turn out to be more wishful thinking than strategy. Especially with most Republican state contests being winner take all, Mr. Trump can win the nomination without gaining a majority of the primary vote and mount a nearly impregnable lead in delegates rapidly, unless defeated in some of the early contests.

 

The odds are that if Ms. Haley is going to prevail, at some point, she will have to take on Mr. Trump.  But it will be far better for her candidacy if that is later rather than sooner—after she has established her own political persona and effectively communicated that to a threshold number of primary voters

 

Haley's candidacy is a long shot.   But she is a formidable political performer with a compelling family immigrant story that embodies the American Dream. Her candidacy is off to a good start.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.


 

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