Biden Will Deliver State of the Union Address With Political Wind at His Back - Horowitz
Tuesday, February 07, 2023
President Biden will deliver his State of the Union address this evening from a position of relative political strength. The speech itself is unlikely to have more than a marginal short-term positive impact on his still mediocre job approval rating. As Gallup has documented, state of the union addresses very rarely result in lasting impacts on presidential job approval.
The speech, however, does provide the president with an opportunity to build on a period of political momentum that has only been somewhat slowed by his own classified documents difficulties. We can count on him, as he did in appearances around the nation last week, to highlight his impressive set of legislative accomplishments as the new laws he championed begin to be implemented, translating to new factory openings and jobs, infrastructure upgrades, and a speedier transition to non-carbon producing renewable energy. Buoyed by a spate of recent good economic news, including continuing robust job creation, resulting in the lowest unemployment rate in more than 50 years, and a marked curbing of inflation, Mr. Biden will likely assert that his policies are a key factor in bringing these economic improvements about.
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He will certainly also trumpet his success in mobilizing Western resolve to help the brave Ukrainians repel a brutal and unjustified Russian invasion and hammer home the importance of staying the course. In doing so, the president will argue we are standing up for democratic values and for our own national security.
As someone who has been fortunate in his political enemies, he will likely frame an implicit contrast between his proven record of bipartisan accomplishment, along with progress in restoring democratic normalcy, and the extremism of the influential MAGA wing of the new Republican House Majority, amplified by the candidacy of the unpopular former president whom Mr. Biden soundly defeated. Mr. Biden is likely to do so this evening in more veiled and softer terms appropriate to this occasion than the pointed and direct criticisms he has made in recent speeches, such as his remarks in Philadelphia Friday at the Democratic National Committee winter meeting.
President Biden knows that the past two Democratic presidents, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton, greatly benefited politically by having a newly elected Republican House Majority as a foil. And the then House Speakers John Boehner and even the combative Newt Gingrich, as well as the Republican House members that appeared regularly on television during those eras both in style and substance, were far more appealing to the broad middle of the nation than Speaker McCarthy and the other most visible current Republican House members. Any day Jim Jordan (R-OH), James Comer (R-KY) or Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA), to name just a few of today’s most prominent Republican House members, appear on television is a good day for the president.
Mr. Biden has the added political bonus of Donald Trump ramping up his presidential campaign. Mr. Trump refuses to abandon the “Big Lie,” despite the fact that those Republican candidates in competitive midterm races that echoed his claims, falsely insisting that the former president was the rightful winner of the 2020 election, were wiped out. He is a daily reminder to independents and moderates--the key swing voters-- of why it is important to keep Joe Biden, despite whatever reservations they may have about him, in the White House.
After being viewed as close to politically dead this past Spring with a number of Democratic elected officials sending signals that they were thinking seriously about 2024 presidential campaigns, Mr. Biden’s series of wins since those difficult days, including passing popular legislation and producing far better than expected midterm election results, has quieted all talk of primary challenges.
President Biden heads in tonight’s speech with our nation on the upswing and the political wind at his back.
Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.
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