Crowe - Championship Weekend and O’Brien’s Patriots Return

Sunday, January 29, 2023

John Crowe, Sports Contributor

 

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PHOTO: NFL

Welcome back, Bill O’Brien.

Those few words are music to most Patriots fans’ ears. That announcement, made official by the team on Thursday through their website, brings O’Brien back to Foxboro as offensive coordinator. Yes, the New England Patriots will actually have an offensive coordinator for the 2023 campaign, ending the one-year saga of Matt Patricia and Joe Judge running the offense without the benefit of any title. As detailed Thursday in a report by the Boston Herald, the project of having Patricia and Judge at the head of the offense failed miserably not only on the field but also behind the scenes. According to one unnamed source in the report, “I love coach (Bill Belichick), but he f—ed us.”

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O’Brien’s first tenure in Foxboro ran from 2007 to 2011. In those five years, the Pats won four AFC East titles, and two AFC Championships, and finished in the top 10 in offense every season. O’Brien left New England to become head coach at Penn State before moving back to the NFL as head coach of the Houston Texans. For the past two seasons, O’Brien has served as offensive coordinator under Nick Saban at the University of Alabama.

"I am looking forward to working with Bill again," said Belichick on the team’s website. "He is an outstanding coach and an asset to our staff."

With O’Brien at the helm offensively, it will be interesting to see if he’s allowed to bring in his people to round out the staff or if that task will be a mutual endeavor with Belichick. Of course, O’Brien’s first go-round in Foxboro, he had the greatest quarterback in NFL history, Tom Brady, to work with. This time, it’ll be Mac Jones in his third season to teach with the hopes of turning around a regression in Jones’ second year, complete with a playoff miss, after a successful rookie season in which the Patriots made the playoffs. Jones and O’Brien crossed paths at Alabama as the quarterback was leaving for the NFL Draft and O’Brien was starting his OC position with the Crimson Tide. It was Jones who taught O’Brien the Alabama offense and now it will be O’Brien teaching Jones the finer points of NFL offense.

The 2022 season was one in which there was plenty of blame to go around for the shortcomings of the New England offense, yet most of the arrows were pointed at Patricia and Judge. Now that O’Brien is here, there should be more accountability for the players. How Belichick and the front office add weapons through the NFL Draft and free agency will go a long way as to whether the Patriots can return to postseason play in 2023.

As for the playoffs, it’s down to the final four as Championship Sunday is here with the winners advancing to the Super Bowl in two weeks. Here’s how we see it playing out in Philadelphia and Kansas City this Sunday.

 

NFC Championship: #2 49ers at #1 Eagles (Sunday 3 pm FOX)

This is the one everyone wanted to see in the NFC. Two of the top three-ranked defenses face off in Philadelphia for the right to advance to Super Bowl LVII in Glendale, Arizona. The 49ers (15-4), winners of 12 straight games, are number one in scoring defense surrendering just 16.4 points per game while they are third in total defense, giving up only 301 yards per game. The Eagles (15-3) not only are third-ranked defensively but come in with a top-five rushing attack that put up 268 yards against the Giants last Sunday. Both made it to the conference championship game by suffocating their opponents in the Divisional Round. San Francisco bottled up Dallas, limiting them to just 12 points in its 19-12 victory while Philadelphia dominated the New York Giants, 38-7, beating them for the third time this season behind three Jalen Hurts scores.

For the Niners, third-string quarterback Brock Purdy has yet to taste defeat, going 8-0 after taking the reigns for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo. Garoppolo is back practicing but has not yet been cleared for game action. Christian McCaffrey, who’s 12-1 since being acquired from the Panthers, leads the star-studded offense of McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Elijah Mitchell. This will be the first Conference Championship in which both quarterbacks are under the age of 25 with Purdy just 23 and Hurts only 24. Speaking of the two quarterbacks, it doesn’t get much more even than their production in their last seven starts. Purdy has tossed 14 touchdowns and averaged 234 yards per game while Hurts has thrown for the same 234 yards per game and 10 scoring passes. The home team has won 12 of the last 20 NFC Championship Games.

The 49ers will win if:
The 49ers must stop the ground game of Philadelphia, spearheaded by Hurts, Miles Sanders, and Boston Scott. San Francisco has been limiting its opponents to 3.4 yards per carry. Conversely, the Eagles averaged 6 yards per play against the Giants, amassing 416 yards of total offense, 268 of those yards coming on the ground, including a staggering 150 yards rushing before contact. It’s the proverbial irresistible force vs. the immovable object as Philly has scored 32 touchdowns via the ground game, an NFL best in 2022.

The Eagles will win if:

Philadelphia has a great shot to be victorious and move on to their fourth Super Bowl appearance If they can constantly harass Brock Purdy, who’s looked calm and collected leading the 49ers’ offense, escaping pressure when needed. The Eagles led the league with 70 sacks during the regular season. They added five more last Saturday night against the Giants as they repeatedly got pressure on quarterback Daniel Jones.

Winner: 24-21 49ers

 

AFC Championship: #3 Bengals at #1 Chiefs (Sunday 6:30 pm CBS)

One year ago, it was the Bengals climbing out of a 21-3 hole in the AFC Championship to shock the Chiefs in OT, 27-24, and advance to the Super Bowl before bowing to the Rams. The rematch brings us a battle between two of the league's hottest teams. The Bengals (14-4) have won ten straight games while the 15-3 Chiefs have come out on top in their past six contests. All eyes in Kansas City this week are on quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ right ankle after suffering a high ankle sprain in last Saturday’s 27-20 victory over the Jaguars in the Divisional Round. Mahomes missed a portion of the second quarter but returned to action to start the second half. Tight end Travis Kelce showed up on the injury report Friday with a back injury so that bears watching over the weekend.

As for Cincinnati, the Bengals had no problems with the Bills or the Buffalo snow last Sunday. Cincy raced out to a 14-0 advantage, eventually winning the game 27-10. Despite playing without three regulars on the offensive line, quarterback Joe Burrow was only sacked once while tossing a pair of touchdown passes. The AFC North Champs will be without guard Alex Cappa and left tackle Jonnah Williams again after both were ruled out on Friday. Left tackle La’el Collins is already out for the year with a knee injury suffered Christmas Eve against the Patriots. Burrow is Patrick Mahomes’ kryptonite it seems, beating him three straight times, all by three points. Earlier this week, some of Burrow’s teammates were calling Arrowhead Stadium, the home of the Chiefs, Burrowhead Stadium as a nod to their starting QB. Could that be bulletin board material for KC? They might need it as Burrow is also 7-0 in January games and 3-0 in road playoff games.

The Bengals will win if:
The magic number is five, keeping Joe Burrow off the ground and effective. The Bengals are 0-3 this season when Burrow gets sacked five or more times. When that number is below five, Cincinnati is 14-1.  Holding the Chiefs’ pass rush down all day may be a tall task to ask as they registered a second-best 55 sacks. If Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine can run the ball at least 25 times for 100 yards, Cincy will be in good shape with a balanced attack that also keeps KC’s number-one-ranked passing attack off the field.

The Chiefs will win if:
First things first: Patrick Mahomes is healthy enough. It’s an obvious one, but it has to be said. Most high ankle sprains are four-week injuries. Chad Henne proved he could lead the Chiefs to points for one drive against the Jaguars, but a whole game might be something entirely different against a very stout Bengals defense that just shut down Josh Allen and the Bills. Mahomes says he is a go for the game and head coach Andy Reid said Friday that Mahomes is good to go as the starter which is great news for Kansas City. The bad news is that temperatures are expected to be in the low 20s which could make that ankle quite sore.

Winner: 27-24 Bengals

If our predictions hold true (we are 9-1 so far through the first two weeks of the playoffs), it’ll be a rematch in Super Bowl LVII between San Francisco and Cincinnati. The 49ers have beaten the Bengals in two previous Super Bowls (XVI and XXIII) as part of their five championships.

 

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