My “Punxsutawney” Political Predictions – “The Sunday Political Brunch” – February 5, 2023

Sunday, February 05, 2023

Mark Curtis, MINDSETTER™

 

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Former SC Governor Nikki Haley PHOTO: United Nations

Punxsutawney Phil, the Pennsylvania groundhog, came out of his cave and saw his shadow last week, meaning we get six more weeks of bad weather. Well, let’s say his prediction is more about political bluster, than weather? Allow me to borrow Phil’s predictive powers, and I’ll tell you what I see, especially in terms of that magic number six as we look ahead in the world of politics. Let’s “brunch,” or hunch, on that this week!

 

“Presidential ‘Phil-osophy!’” – Well, here’s the good news, since Groundhog Phil does things in sixes, there is one thing he can absolutely guarantee. If it’s another Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump showdown in 2024, each can only serve four more years (not six!) Of course, there are rumors Hillary Clinton may take another shot on the Democrat side, along with lightning-rod Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), Florida on the Republican side. So, as newbies, each could serve eight years. Keep an eye on Phil’s shadow!

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“Sixes in the Senate” – Let’s look at the U.S. Senate, where each member is elected to a six-year term. Though we expect his announcement reasonably soon, the sometimes polarizing U.S. Senator Joe Manchin (D) West Virginia is up for reelection in 2024. Manchin has a host of options. Run for Senate as a Democrat, or switch parties and run as a Republican. He could also try to regain the job he loved most, come home, and run for Governor of West Virginia as a Democrat… or switch parties and run for governor as a Republican. Others handicap him as an independent candidate for president in 2024, or might he challenge Biden for the Democrat nomination? That gives him six options, in three races!

 

“Six Races to Watch” – A couple of weeks ago, I handicapped control of the U.S. Senate in 2024. Thirty-four seats are up for grabs, twenty-three controlled by the Democrat caucus, with just 11 for Republicans. This is a huge GOP advantage. Eight seats are considered toss-ups, in West Virginia, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania. It’s a presidential election year, and as always, Ohio, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania, are critical battleground swing states, which can control who is in the White House and who controls the Senate. Again, we boil it down to the lucky six!

 

“Six Seats from Being Speaker” – Right now, Republicans hold the House majority with 222 GOP House Members, to 213 for Democrats. Now, a net gain of five would give it back to Democrats, but truth be told, they need a pad to account for a least one conservative Southern Democrat who might bolt. (Remember five conservative Democrats bolted the party line and voted to impeach President Bill Clinton). So, just to be safe, Democrats need a least a six-seat gain to have firm control of the House, again based on the political predictions of “Punxsutawney Mark!”

 

“The Six Issues Driving Election 2024” – First, Inflation. If Biden and his Democrat agenda can reduce inflation to six percent (sorry for the redundancy), he can win a second term. If inflation continues to hover in the eight percent range, he’s toast. The other five issues are: the border immigration crisis, the pervasiveness of fentanyl and other opioids, the shape of the U.S. Supreme Court, the U.S. military might overseas, (or lack thereof, given Russian and Chinese aggression. Don’t even get me started on the Chinese “weather balloons”). And then there’s the continuing issue of assuring adequate health care for all. Voters have to believe that progress is being made on at least half of these, to make them check the box for the incumbents in either party.

 

“Ages of the Supreme Court Justices” – Six of the justices on the U.S. Supreme Court are Republican appointees, three from Trump, two from Bush II and one from Bush I. By Election Day 2024, six of these justices will be over the age of 60, including a couple in their 70s. Justices rarely resign, and usually leave the front office door feet first. No, I am not suggesting or predicting any of their demises, but logic tells you some will depart in the not-too-distant future. “Punxsutawney Mark” predicts that whoever is elected in 2024, will appoint two justices to the high court. Can you imagine if it’s Trump? That would give him five picks over two terms.

 

“Sanders for the Rebuttal” – It was announced this week that Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R) Arkansas will give the Republican response to President Biden’s State of the Union Address later this week. Whether you like her politics, or not, the 40-year-old Sanders is impressive. While her dad, Mike Huckabee, tried a number of times to win the White House, he came up short. “Punxsutawney Mark” predicts if she does a decent job by voters, Sanders could be viable in… the next six presidential election cycles! If, of course, she can see her shadow after the State of the Union rebuttal.

 

“Haley’s Comet” – Within the next week or so, former Gov. Nikki Haley (R) South Carolina is going to announce that she is running for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. She will be the first declared challenger to former President Trump, whom she served as U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations. She was tough and outspoken, especially against Iran, which could bode well for her. But I think we can anticipate she is one of at least six in the Republican field.

 

“Who Else Adds Up to Six?” -- They include former Vice President Mike Pence, Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) Florida, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) Virginia, and there could be more than six. Lord knows, we could have an all-out-free-for-all. www.Tuscon.com is running a list of twenty-four potential GOP candidates. Yikes! If you divide that by a 4-year term, you’ll get “six” viable GOP candidates. Ok, I will roll the dice and STOP if it comes up six! My political prognosticating six-shooter is now empty, LOL!

Mark Curtis, Ed.D., is Chief Political Reporter for the seven Nexstar Media TV stations serving West Virginia, its five neighboring states and the entire Washington, DC media market. He is also a MINDSETTER™ contributing political writer and analyst for www.GoLocalProv.com and its affiliates.


 

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