One Year in Ukraine Demonstrates Unexpected Strength - Rob Horowitz

Tuesday, March 07, 2023

Rob Horowitz, MINDSETTER™

 

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President Zelensky PHOTO: Defense Ministry

When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022,  a little more than a year ago, the nearly universal expectation was that it would take the much larger and far better-equipped Russian army no more than a couple of weeks to roll over the Ukrainian defense forces, advance to Kyiv, depose President Zelensky, and install a puppet government. 

 

Instead, the Russian army met fierce resistance that slowed its advance. In fact, fortified by military aid from the United States and NATO, the Ukrainian armed forces have taken back about half of the territory Russia initially gained.  Russia now controls only about 17% of Ukrainian territory and that includes the territory it seized in 2014, Crimea and part of the Dombas.  Most military observers believe there is little prospect of the Russians making substantial further inroads.

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This inspiring stand for freedom and democracy by the brave Ukrainians, backed by a Western alliance skillfully unified by President Biden, is sending a strong and necessary message, in a world where authoritarianism had been on the march, that nations can’t simply take other nations by force just because they choose to and have superior military strength.  The resilience of the Ukrainian people in the face of constant shelling deliberately aiming at civilian targets and the courage and fighting skill of the Ukrainian military, who are battling for the survival of their country, has provided a heartening, sharp and favorable contrast with the underperformance of the Russian troops, who are far less motivated and as it turns out surprisingly poorly trained and incompetently commanded.

 

For Vladimir Putin, this ill-advised invasion has turned out to be an unmitigated disaster; one he so richly deserves. NATO is stronger than ever with Finland and Sweden about to join its ranks due to Putin’s invasion.  Germany and other European nations will, out of necessity, end up far less reliant on Russian fossil fuels by the end of this conflict than they were before it began.  Further, estimates of Russian troops killed or missing in Ukraine are already north of 60,000---far exceeding the number of American troops killed or missing during the entire Vietnam War. Even by conservative estimates, total Russian casualties so far exceed 120,000.

 

Another casualty of this war is the myth of Putin’s strategic genius and Russian omnipotence. This admiring view of the Russian president had gained much currency on the American and European far right.  It is now punctured for all but that narrow slice of true Putin believers.

 

Additionally, there remains majority support for continuing to provide military aid to Ukraine in the United States as well as bipartisan support in Congress.   It is the case that there is growing share of Republicans who are more doubtful of the effort and whose patience is not unlimited and a cadre of House Republican members who are strongly opposed. A recent Gallup Poll, however, finds that, “A stable 65% of U.S. adults prefer that the United States support Ukraine in reclaiming its territory even if that results in a prolonged conflict.”  This compares to only 31% who say "they would rather see the U.S. work to end the war quickly, even if this allows Russia to keep its territory.”

 

Even with all these positive developments, the road ahead in Ukraine remains challenging and fraught with difficulties.   Just as it is hard to see Russia making large military gains going forward, it is difficult to envision Ukraine taking back substantial additional amounts of its territory that is now under Russian control without sustaining a large number of new military and civilian casualties as well as enduring further devastating damage to its infrastructure.  At some point, there will need to be a negotiated settlement and one in which Russia will likely end up keeping at least the ground they seized in 2014.

 

In all likelihood, however, Ukraine will remain mainly intact, continuing as an imperfect democracy governed by its own people—not a Russian client state ruled by fear and force.  This is an outcome that few of us thought possible and nearly all of us would have signed-up for at the time Vladmir Putin launched this unjustified invasion a little over a year ago.

 

With continuing strong United States and NATO resolve, Ukraine will stand as an enduring example of the strength of a free people, serving as a warning to tyrants everywhere.  That is a glass way more than half full.

Rob Horowitz is a strategic and communications consultant who provides general consulting, public relations, direct mail services and polling for national and state issue organizations, various non-profits, businesses, and elected officials and candidates. He is an Adjunct Professor of Political Science at the University of Rhode Island.


 

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