What happens if Jeff Flake, other GOP senators oppose Brett Kavanaugh?

PHOENIX – In a deeply divided U.S. Senate paralyzed by partisan rancor, the fate of President Donald Trump's nomination of Brett Kavanaugh to the U.S. Supreme Court could rest with Sen. Jeff Flake of Arizona.

Eleven months after his own dramatic retirement speech before the Senate, the single-term Arizona Republican finds himself in a key position to either thwart the president, whom he has challenged, or help him win a major victory.

Flake, a potential swing vote on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has not said how he will vote on Kavanaugh’s nomination.

A Mormon who has called for civility and morality amid the divisive Trump era appears troubled by Christine Blasey Ford's allegations, which have unfolded against the backdrop of a president who has been accused of his own sexual indiscretions.

On the one hand, Flake, a conservative, agrees with Kavanaugh's judicial philosophy. On the other hand, he likely watched Ford's testimony with great concern. Ford says that at a high school party years ago, Kavanaugh held her down on a bed and tried to remove her clothes at a party. 

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"I want to hear the whole hearing" before commenting publicly, Flake told reporters during a hearing break on Thursday.

The committee's work on the allegations is the earliest legislative test of the viability of Kavanaugh's nomination. 

Flake is one of 11 Republicans on the committee; 10 Democrats make up the remainder of the panel.

None of the Republicans questioned Ford during her appearance on Thursday.

One GOP defection could further complicate Kavanaugh’s path to the high court, but not necessarily stop it from going to the full Senate for a vote. 

"He is clearly upset by this," Bruce Oppenheimer, a Vanderbilt University political science professor, said of Flake. "While he's retiring from the Senate, he potentially has further political ambitions, so that's a line he has to walk."

Oppenheimer laid out a number of scenarios. The committee, which is expected to take action Friday, could vote to report out Kavanaugh's nomination either favorably or unfavorably. Either of those actions would make the nomination subject to a potential vote on the floor of the Senate, which is almost evenly divided.

The full Senate could take up a vote of the nomination, either confirming or rejecting it. 

Trump's response to Ford's historic hearing, and how other allegations against Kavanaugh play in the hours ahead, could upend the nomination.

Another option would be for Judiciary Chairman Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, to send Kavanaugh's nomination to the Senate without any committee recommendation. That has happened four times in the past, with the Senate confirming three of the nominees and rejecting one, according to a Congressional Research Service report. 

It's also possible that Grassley could decide that the committee won't act at all. Of the 118 Supreme Court nominations referred to the Judiciary Committee, nine were never reported out by the committee to the full Senate. Six of those were never confirmed, while the other three were ultimately approved, the report says.

Kavanaugh vehemently denied all of the allegations against him and said the confirmation process "has become a national disgrace." He said he did not attend the party Ford referenced in her testimony. 

In a prepared opening statement released publicly ahead of his planned testimony, he wrote, "I categorically and unequivocally deny the allegation against me by Dr. Ford. I never had any sexual or physical encounter of any kind with Dr. Ford."

While Flake has been coy about his own political future, he has repeatedly made known that he wants to see a Republican challenge Trump in 2020.

In March, Flake made his first known visit to New Hampshire, which hosts the first-in-the-nation presidential primary. Back then, he had repeatedly said a presidential campaign was not in his plans, but also that he had not ruled one out. 

He is making at least his second conspicuous trip to New Hampshire. On Oct. 1, he is scheduled to speak at Saint Anselm's New Hampshire Institute of Politics  in an address titled, "After the Deluge: A Rejection of Destructive Politics and a Return to Principle." 

Arizona's other Republican senator, Jon Kyl, has not talked publicly about the allegations against Kavanaugh. 

He has not responded to The Arizona Republic's repeated attempts to reach him

Kyl, who was appointed to the Senate earlier this month following the death of U.S. Sen. John McCain, is still setting up his senatorial office.

Before rejoining the Senate, Kyl served as Kavanaugh's "sherpa," helping him navigate the Senate confirmation process. It is unclear if Kyl knew of Ford's allegations before they were made public.  

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Contributing: Erin Kelly, USA TODAY