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EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 26, 2021

BEA 21-07

Personal Income and Outlays, January 2021

Personal income increased $1,954.7 billion (10.0 percent) in January according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (tables 3 and 5). Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $1,963.2 billion (11.4 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $340.9 billion (2.4 percent).

Real DPI increased 11.0 percent in January and Real PCE increased 2.0 percent; goods increased 5.1 percent and services increased 0.5 percent (tables 5 and 7). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index also increased 0.3 percent (table 9).

COVID-19 Impact on January 2021 Personal Income and Outlays

The estimate for January personal income and outlays was impacted by the continued federal response to the spread of COVID-19. Economic impact payments and increased unemployment insurance benefits were distributed as a result of the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Appropriations (CRRSA) Act, which was enacted on December 27, 2020. Additionally, restrictions and closures continued in some areas of the United States. The full economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic cannot be quantified in the personal income and outlays estimate because the impacts are generally embedded in source data and cannot be separately identified. For more information, see Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income.

	2020				2021
	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.
	Percent change from preceding month
Personal income:
Current dollars	0.7	-0.7	-1.2	0.6	10.0
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	0.7	-0.8	-1.4	0.6	11.4
Chained (2012) dollars	0.5	-0.9	-1.4	0.2	11.0
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE):
Current dollars	1.3	0.2	-0.6	-0.4	2.4
Chained (2012) dollars	1.1	0.2	-0.6	-0.8	2.0
Price indexes:
PCE	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.4	0.3
PCE, excluding food and energy	0.2	0.0	0.0	0.3	0.3
Price indexes:	Percent change from month one year ago
PCE	1.4	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.5
PCE, excluding food and energy	1.5	1.4	1.4	1.4	1.5

The increase in personal income in January was more than accounted for by an increase in government social benefits to persons as payments were made to individuals from federal COVID-19 pandemic response programs. The increase in “other” benefits primarily reflected economic impact payments distributed through the CRRSA Act. Unemployment insurance also increased, reflecting an increase in pandemic unemployment compensation, including supplemental weekly payments to unemployment beneficiaries re-introduced by the CRRSA Act (table 3).

The $340.9 billion increase in current dollar PCE in January reflected an increase of $277.2 billion in spending for goods and a $63.7 billion increase in spending for services (table 5). Within goods, the increases were widespread across all categories, led by recreational goods and vehicles (notably, information processing equipment) as well as food and beverages, based on Census Monthly Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) data. Within services, the increase was led by spending for food services and accommodations (more than accounted for by food services), based on MRTS data. Spending for health care (led by outpatient services) also increased, reflecting data on the volume of visits as well as revenue data. Partly offsetting these increases was a decrease in housing and utilities (led by electricity and gas), reflecting data from the Energy Information Administration. Detailed information on monthly PCE spending can be found on Table 2.3.5U.

Personal outlays increased $348.7 billion in January (table 3). Personal saving was $3.93 trillion in January and the personal saving rate—personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 20.5 percent (table 1).

Updates to Personal Income and Outlays

Estimates have been updated for July through December 2020. For July through September, estimates for compensation, personal taxes, and contributions for government social insurance reflect the incorporation of the most recently available third-quarter wage and salary data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages program. Revised and previously published changes from the preceding month for current-dollar personal income, and for current-dollar and chained (2012) dollar DPI and PCE, are shown below.

	Change from preceding month
	October				November
	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised	Previous	Revised
	(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)		(Billions of dollars)		(Percent)
Personal income:
Current dollars	-255.9	-241.6	-1.3	-1.2	116.6	112.9	0.6	0.6
Disposable personal income:
Current dollars	-255.7	-247.5	-1.5	-1.4	111.6	103.1	0.6	0.6
Chained (2012) dollars	-229.6	-223.9	-1.5	-1.4	34.3	35.2	0.2	0.2
Personal consumption expenditures:
Current dollars	-99.0	-85.5	-0.7	-0.6	-27.9	-57.0	-0.2	-0.4
Chained (2012) dollars	-89.2	-78.5	-0.7	-0.6	-79.8	-98.9	-0.6	-0.8

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Next release: March 26, 2021 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
Personal Income and Outlays, February 2021

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Full Release & Tables (PDF)

Tables Only (Excel)

Release Highlights (PDF)

Historical Comparisons (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (PDF)

Effects of Selected Federal Pandemic Response Programs on Personal Income (Excel)

Personal Income

Marissa Crawford

(301) 278-9729

piniwd@bea.gov

PCE Goods

Kyle Brown

301-278-9086

pce@bea.gov

PCE Services

Jeff Barnett

301-278-9663

pce@bea.gov

News Media

Jeannine Aversa

(301) 278-9003

Jeannine.Aversa@bea.gov

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NIPA Handbook: Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Personal income is the income received by, or on behalf of, all persons from all sources: from participation as laborers in production, from owning a home or business, from the ownership of financial assets, and from government and business in the form of transfers. It includes income from domestic sources as well as the rest of world. It does not include realized or unrealized capital gains or losses.

Disposable personal income e is the income available to persons for spending or saving. It is equal to personal income less personal current taxes.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the value of the goods and services purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons” who reside in the United States.

Personal outlays is the sum of PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments.

Personal saving is personal income less personal outlays and personal current taxes.

The personal saving rate is personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is, at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”

Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.

Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Monthly and quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR). Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Calendar years and quarters. Unless noted otherwise, annual data are presented on a calendar-year basis (i.e., covering January through December). Quarterly data are presented on a calendar-quarter basis (i.e., Q1 = January, February, March; Q2 = April, May, June; Q3 = July, August, September; Q4 = October, November, December).

Month-to-month percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are not annualized.

Quarter-to-quarter percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual rates. For detail, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?” and “Why does BEA publish percent changes in quarterly series at annual rates?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2012). Quantity and price indexes are calculated using a Fisherchained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent periods (months for monthly data, quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). For details on the calculation of quantity and price indexes, see Chapter 4: Estimating Methods in the NIPA Handbook.

Chained-dollar values are calculated by multiplying the quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2012) and then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding. Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those of the reference year. In tables that display chaineddollar values, a "residual" line shows the difference between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.