Midterm Election Poll: Florida’s 26th District, Curbelo vs. Mucarsel-Powell
We polled voters in Florida’s 26th Congressional District.
This poll was conducted from Oct. 19 to Oct. 24.
A Democratic-leaning district represented by a Republican. We made 26474 calls, and 499 people spoke to us.
Our poll shows a close race.
Given expectations, our poll is a good result for Democrats. But remember: It’s just one poll, and we talked to only 499 people. Each candidate’s total could easily be five points different if we polled everyone in the district. And having a small sample is only one possible source of error.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College. Where we called:
Each dot shows one of the 26474 calls we made.
Vote choice: Dem. Rep. Don’t know Didn’t answerTo preserve privacy, exact addresses have been concealed. The locations shown here are approximate.
Explore the 2016 election in detail with this interactive map.
About the race
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has focused on the issue of health care in her campaign. 40% favorable rating; 25% unfavorable; 35% don’t know
Based on 499 interviews
Carlos Curbelo is the current representative and a Cuban-American. He voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. 46% favorable rating; 38% unfavorable; 16% don’t know
Based on 499 interviews
This strongly Hispanic South Florida district was created in 2012 and encompasses most of southern Miami-Dade County, Key West and all three of Florida’s national parks.
(We polled this district from Sept. 13-17, showing a slight edge for Mr. Curbelo.)
Mr. Curbelo has disagreed with President Trump on some immigration issues. He initiated a seldom-used procedural maneuver to try to force the House to vote on a series of immigration proposals, a bold gesture that fell short by two votes.
Mr. Curbelo has also distanced himself from the president in other areas, calling the accumulation of Trump-related scandals a “sad chapter in our country’s politics.” But he voted for the G.O.P. tax overhaul; in fact, he helped draft the legislation as a member of the congressional tax-writing committee. Ms. Mucarsel-Powell has said Curbelo benefited personally from the bill.
Ms. Mucarsel-Powell, an immigrant from Ecuador who moved to the U.S. as a teenager, has said she was inspired to run for Congress the day that Mr. Curbelo voted to repeal the Affordable Care Act. She has worked as an associate dean at Florida International University and as a volunteer for a variety of environmental causes.
Previous election results:
| 2016 President | +16 Clinton |
| 2012 President | +12 Obama |
| 2016 House | +12 Rep. |
It’s generally best to look at a single poll in the context of other polls:
| Polls | Dates | Mucarsel-Powell | Curbelo | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, Inc. n = 625 lv | Oct. 3-9 | 45% | 46% | Curbelo +1 |
| GBA Strategies (D.) 500 lv | Sept. 27-Oct. 1 | 50% | 48% | Mucarsel-Powell +2 |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (D.) 500 lv | Sept. 23-27 | 49% | 48% | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
| Public Policy Polling (D.) 511 v | Sept. 17-18 | 46% | 45% | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
| Siena College/New York Times 509 lv | Sept. 13-17 | 44% | 47% | Curbelo +4 |
| GBA Strategies (D.) 500 lv | July 16-22 | 41% | 48% | Curbelo +7 |
| DCCC Targeting Team (D.) 400 rv | Mar. 17-22 | 40% | 45% | Curbelo +5 |
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How our poll result changed
As we reach more people, our poll will become more stable and the margin of sampling error will shrink. The changes in the timeline below reflect that sampling error, not real changes in the race.
One reason we’re doing these surveys live is so you can see the uncertainty for yourself.
If sampling error were the only type of error in a poll, we would expect candidates who trail by one point in a poll of 499 people to win about three out of every seven races. But this probably understates the total error by a factor of two.
Our turnout model
There’s a big question on top of the standard margin of error in a poll: Who is going to vote? It’s a particularly challenging question this year, since special elections have shown Democrats voting in large numbers.
To estimate the likely electorate, we combine what people say about how likely they are to vote with information about how often they have voted in the past. In previous races, this approach has been more accurate than simply taking people at their word. But there are many other ways to do it.
Assumptions about who is going to vote may be particularly important in this race.
Our poll under different turnout scenarios
| Who will vote? | Est. turnout | Our poll result |
|---|---|---|
| The types of people who voted in 2014 | 159k | Curbelo +2 |
| People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say | 183k | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
| Our estimate | 184k | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
| People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness | 199k | Mucarsel-Powell +3 |
| People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else | 251k | Curbelo +4 |
| The types of people who voted in 2016 | 266k | Curbelo +2 |
| Every active registered voter | 404k | Mucarsel-Powell +3 |
All estimates based on 499 interviews
The types of people we reached
Even if we got turnout exactly right, the margin of error wouldn’t capture all of the error in a poll. The simplest version assumes we have a perfect random sample of the voting population. We do not.
People who respond to surveys are almost always too old, too white, too educated and too politically engaged to accurately represent everyone.
How successful we were in reaching different kinds of voters
| Called | Inter- viewed | Success rate | Our responses | Goal | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 | 2593 | 42 | 1 in 62 | 8% | 11% |
| 30 to 64 | 16373 | 337 | 1 in 49 | 68% | 58% |
| 65 and older | 5393 | 120 | 1 in 45 | 24% | 32% |
| Male | 9681 | 223 | 1 in 43 | 45% | 45% |
| Female | 14688 | 276 | 1 in 53 | 55% | 55% |
| White | 3455 | 110 | 1 in 31 | 22% | 21% |
| Nonwhite | 20470 | 378 | 1 in 54 | 76% | 76% |
| Cell | 17359 | 403 | 1 in 43 | 81% | — |
| Landline | 7010 | 96 | 1 in 73 | 19% | — |
Based on administrative records. Some characteristics are missing or incorrect. Many voters are called multiple times.
Pollsters compensate by giving more weight to respondents from under-represented groups.
Here, we’re weighting by age, party registration, gender, likelihood of voting, race and region, mainly using data from voting records files compiled by L2, a nonpartisan voter file vendor.
But weighting works only if you weight by the right categories and you know what the composition of the electorate will be. In 2016, many pollsters didn’t weight by education and overestimated Hillary Clinton’s standing as a result.
Even after weighting, our poll does not have as many of some types of people as we would like.
Here are other common ways to weight a poll:
Our poll under different weighting schemes
| Our poll result | |
|---|---|
| Don’t weight by party registration, like most public polls | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
| Don’t weight by education, like many polls in 2016 | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
| Our estimate | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
| Weight using census data instead of voting records, like most public polls | Mucarsel-Powell +1 |
All estimates based on 499 interviews
Just because one candidate leads in all of these different weighting scenarios doesn’t mean much by itself. They don’t represent the full range of possible weighting scenarios, let alone the full range of possible election results.
Undecided voters
About 11 percent of voters said that they were undecided or refused to tell us whom they would vote for. On questions about issues, these voters most closely resembled Democrats.
Issues and other questions
Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president?
| Approve | Disapp. | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 499 | 44% | 49% | 7% |
Would you prefer Republicans to retain control of the House of Representatives or would you prefer Democrats to take control?
| Reps. keep House | Dems. take House | Don’t know | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Voters n = 499 | 44% | 50% | 6% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters.
What different types of voters said
Voters nationwide are deeply divided along demographic lines. Our poll suggests divisions too. But don’t overinterpret these tables. Results among subgroups may not be representative or reliable. Be especially careful with groups with fewer than 100 respondents, shown here in stripes.
Gender
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Female n = 276 / 55% of voters | 45% | 43% | 12% |
| Male 223 / 45% | 45% | 45% | 11% |
Age
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 to 29 n = 40 / 9% of voters | 52% | 34% | 14% |
| 30 to 44 112 / 19% | 55% | 32% | 14% |
| 45 to 64 226 / 41% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| 65 and older 121 / 31% | 35% | 50% | 15% |
Race
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| White n = 125 / 25% of voters | 39% | 51% | 10% |
| Black 48 / 8% | 81% | 7% | 11% |
| Hispanic 285 / 60% | 42% | 47% | 10% |
| Asian 8 / 1% | 69% | 24% | 6% |
| Other 14 / 3% | 34% | 37% | 28% |
Race and education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nonwhite n = 355 / 72% of voters | 47% | 42% | 11% |
| White, college grad 63 / 9% | 48% | 42% | 10% |
| White, not college grad 62 / 16% | 33% | 57% | 10% |
Education
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| H.S. Grad. or Less n = 46 / 13% of voters | 40% | 45% | 15% |
| Some College Educ. 173 / 47% | 47% | 43% | 10% |
| 4-year College Grad. 141 / 25% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Post-grad. 126 / 13% | 35% | 49% | 16% |
Region
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monroe n = 96 / 16% of voters | 37% | 53% | 10% |
| North Miami-Dade 235 / 46% | 37% | 51% | 12% |
| South Miami-Dade 161 / 36% | 57% | 32% | 11% |
Party
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat n = 163 / 34% of voters | 81% | 5% | 13% |
| Republican 166 / 34% | 5% | 92% | 3% |
| Independent 149 / 29% | 53% | 33% | 14% |
| Another party 5 / 1% | 40% | 60% | — |
Party registration
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic n = 194 / 39% of voters | 74% | 10% | 15% |
| Republican 182 / 36% | 7% | 88% | 5% |
| Other 123 / 25% | 54% | 32% | 15% |
Intention of voting
| Dem. | Rep. | Und. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Already voted n = 95 / 21% of voters | 45% | 47% | 7% |
| Almost certain 255 / 54% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Very likely 102 / 20% | 43% | 43% | 15% |
| Somewhat likely 17 / 3% | 63% | 15% | 22% |
| Not very likely 9 / 1% | 11% | 57% | 32% |
| Not at all likely 16 / 1% | 44% | 24% | 32% |
Percentages are weighted to resemble likely voters; the number of respondents in each subgroup is unweighted. Undecided voters includes those who refused to answer.
Other districts where we’ve completed polls
About this poll
- Most responses shown here are delayed about 30 minutes. Some are delayed longer for technical reasons.
- The design effect of this poll is 1.24. That’s a measure of how much weighting we are doing to make our respondents resemble all voters.
- Read more about the methodology for this poll.
- Download the microdata behind this poll.
This survey was conducted by The New York Times Upshot and Siena College.
Data collection by Reconnaissance Market Research, M. Davis and Company, the Institute for Policy and Opinion Research at Roanoke College, the Survey Research Center at the University of Waterloo, the University of North Florida and the Siena College Research Institute.