The lack of statewide action by the governor, the voracious delta variant and the overwhelming pushback from a steadfast portion of Oregonians shunning masks and COVID-19 vaccinations have prompted two new forecasts to predict a deeply concerning future for the state in coming months -- mirroring predictions for much of the nation.
A forecast released Friday by Oregon Health & Science University anticipates that the number of patients actively hospitalized by the coronavirus at any given time will nearly double by the end of September, reaching a high of about 335.
A second forecast released Thursday by the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation predicted an even more dire late summer and fall: More than 650 Oregonians hospitalized because of the virus by Nov. 1 -- a level that could be comparable to last winter’s peak.
The latter forecast also anticipates nearly 1,600 new known cases per day -- slightly higher than the depths of the pandemic reached in Oregon last winter.
Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist who worked on the grimmer forecast, called the recent rise in cases and hospitalizations starting in summer -- rather than in fall or winter -- “scary and alarming.” That’s because coronaviruses usually take hold in the colder months of fall and winter.
“I wasn’t afraid two months ago. I’m afraid now,” Mokdad said. “I’m double-masking again when I’m indoors, and I’m fully vaccinated.”
While it’s impossible to know if those forecasts will be accurate, both anticipate statewide hospitalizations well above the threshold of 300 set in April by Gov. Kate Brown for enacting a host of restrictions to curb what was then a swift-mounting spring coronavirus wave with hospitalizations growing by more than 15% per week. But Brown has now pivoted away from the same state-issued restrictions for the summer surge, undercutting her previous assertion that implementing safeguards tied to hospitalization benchmarks “will save lives and help stop COVID-19 hospitalizations from spiking even higher.”
The state’s hands-off approach is coming under scrutiny just three weeks after Brown effectively declared victory over the coronavirus, holding a celebration near downtown Portland to officially lift statewide masking requirements and other safety mandates. State officials have said it’s now up to county leaders to set local policies, as needed, to contain the virus.
That’s yet to happen in Oregon. Other locales have been more aggressive, with Los Angeles County in California reinstituting mask mandates and New York’s mayor calling on businesses to require vaccinations among employees.
During the spring wave, before vaccinations were universally available to any Oregonian who wanted one, Brown outlined her final plan for stricter restrictions as hospitalizations surged.
At the time, 163 people with confirmed COVID-19 were in hospital beds.
On Friday, state hospitalizations reached 178.
Spokesman Charles Boyle didn’t directly answer a question about how high hospitalizations would need to rise before the governor would take action by reinstating any sort of public health measures -- or if she ever planned to do so.
Boyle said Brown’s office is closely watching the forecasts, which are “cause for concern.” But he added that for now, leaders of individual counties have the power to enact their own mandates. He also did not directly respond to a question about the practicality of that approach given the aversion that many conservative counties, with fast-growing infection rates, have to enacting any sort of restrictions.
“With over 2.4 million Oregonians vaccinated, including 7 out of 10 adults, and with life-saving vaccines widely available, we have entered a new phase of the pandemic,” Boyle said in an email Friday.
Boyle added that “unprecedented, blanket statewide measures are no longer the most effective or efficient defense against the spread of COVID-19, which is now concentrated in communities with low vaccination rates and high vaccine hesitancy.”
Although 71% of Oregon adults are at least partially vaccinated, only about 56% of residents of all ages are fully vaccinated. Many public health experts say that percentage needs to be 80% or higher to stamp out transmission.
Mokdad, the epidemiologist from the University of Washington forecasting team, said vaccinations and mask mandates for everyone -- the unvaccinated as well as vaccinated, because a portion of vaccinated people may still be able to spread the virus -- are simple and non-intrusive measures that will allow states to reach that goal.
“I can’t understand right now why states have not mandated masks indoors,” Mokdad said. “You get a vaccine, we don’t shut down our economy. You wear a mask, we don’t shut down the economy.”
Mokdad’s home state, Washington, on Friday took a baby step toward that end. State epidemiologist Dr. Scott Lindquist recommended, but didn’t not call for a mandate, for all residents to once again don masks in indoor public spaces, citing the state’s fifth surge. Since the state reopened in late June, Gov. Jay Inslee also has required that all unvaccinated people wear masks in indoor public spaces, although the requirement lacks teeth to enforce.
In Oregon, Brown has said vaccinated people don’t need to wear masks in virtually all public spaces, and that she strongly recommends but doesn’t require unvaccinated people to cover up.
The institute predicts about 300 Oregonians will die in roughly the next three months, but 227 of those lives could be saved if all residents immediately started wearing masks whenever they’re in public.
The institute’s projections estimate that about 12% of Oregon residents currently are wearing masks. OHSU’s projection puts that at less than 40%.
Peter Graven, the data scientist that created Friday’s OHSU COVID-19 forecast, predicts Oregon could be in for a rougher fifth wave than many other states. Even though Oregon’s vaccination rate is higher than most -- tying for 11th place for fully vaccinated residents -- it has had a relatively low infection rate over the pandemic so far and that means fewer residents have natural immunity.
Graven estimates Oregon will have the sixth highest infection rate in the nation in coming months -- ahead of other low-vaccination but higher infection states such as Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia and Missouri.
But Graven and Mokdad both point out there is one bright, shining point in the forecasts put out by both institutions: Oregonians and Americans have the power to change the future if they get vaccinated and every one of them starts wearing masks again.
According to the forecast from the University of Washington, universal masking in Oregon would mean the number of new known cases by Nov. 1 would stand at about 19 per day instead of 1,600 without it, an astonishing attestation to the power of face coverings.
Deaths in early November would amount to a rate of one every 10 days instead of 50 deaths every 10 days.
Mokdad said one big reason his institute creates the forecast is to show the public what lies ahead if people don’t change their behaviors, in hopes that they will. State mandates would help, he said.
“We put out this projection, but I hope we’re totally wrong. I pray that we’re wrong,” Mokdad said. “I hope people go and get the vaccine and wear a mask and these cases will go down and next week or in a few weeks, we will change these projections.”
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-- Aimee Green; agreen@oregonian.com; @o_aimee
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