There isn’t a state on the Senate map where national Republicans are facing their dream candidate scenario. In seven of the eight most competitive states in 2018, either a top candidate has turned them down, two candidates are staring at a potentially messy primary, or both. In the eighth, Florida, Gov. Rick Scott is keeping them waiting. Here’s POLITICO’s (incomplete) rundown of the GOP candidate situation in eight states won by Trump with incumbent Democratic Senators.
Related Story: Senate GOP recruiting slow-going for 2018.
Florida
Nelson, a Florida institution, has been in elected or appointed office since 1973. He’s the only remaining elected statewide Democrat in Florida, but has carved out a moderate image.
Republican recruits
Scott, the state’s two-term governor, is essentially the sole focus of GOP recruiting efforts in Florida. He’s a rare candidate with both the name identification and the fundraising prowess to compete against an incumbent.
Indiana
Donnelly was another Democrat who benefited from weak 2012 opposition, but hopes his moderate image can protect him in a state Trump easily conquered.
Republican recruits
Messer, one of two congressmen all-but-certain to enter the race against Donnelly, has assembled a top-notch fundraising team, including Greg Pence, brother of Vice President Mike Pence.
Rokita is also almost certainly a candidate, and has name identification advantage after serving two terms as secretary of state.
Missouri
Trump won the Show-Me State by 19 percentage points, but McCaskill, with the help of a terrible GOP candidate, had already defied expectations and won reelection here in 2012.
Republican recruits
Petersen, who ran for the Libertarian Party’s presidential nomination in 2016, officially announced a GOP bid for Senate earlier this week.
The state’s 37-year-old attorney general is the GOP’s new top recruiting target. While’s he been in office less than a year, he helped argue the Hobby Lobby case before the Supreme Court while in private practice.
Hartzler, a more conservative congresswoman than Wagner, isn’t ruling out a Senate run of her own. She could attempt to run to Hawley’s right in a primary.
Since winning election to the House in 2012, Wagner had been expected to challenge McCaskill. But GOP insiders in the state prefer Hawley and slowly pushed her out of the race.
Montana
Tester, the DSCC chairman in the previous cycle, won his seat in 2006 and was reelected in 2012. Tester is known for keeping close eyes on his state, and still works his ranch in Montana.
Republican recruits
Downing, a self-storage company CEO, Air Force veteran and friend of Zinke’s, has already announced a bid. But both his California roots and his past criticisms of Trump could prove to be a political problem.
Republicans have recently discussed Rosendale, the state treasurer and a real estate developer, as a potential candidate. But he has out-of-state roots that Democrats have used successfully against other Montana Republicans in the past.
Zinke, a former Navy Seal, was national Republicans’ first pick to take on Tester before Trump offered him a job as interior secretary.
Fox, the state’s attorney general, was the second pick of national Republicans, but he spurned them last month, instead deciding to focus on a 2020 gubernatorial bid.
North Dakota
Heitkamp, a former agriculture commissioner, narrowly defeated Rep. Rick Berg in 2012 even as Mitt Romney defeated President Barack Obama by 20 percentage points.
Republican recruits
Cramer has won statewide before and is the obvious pick to battle Heitkamp, but Republicans worry about his propensity for cringeworthy comments.
Campbell, a state senator, has said he’ll run for Senate if Cramer doesn’t, and run for Cramer’s seat in the House if he does.
Ohio
Brown, a populist beloved by unions, is considered a potential 2020 presidential nominee.
Republican recruits
Mandel, the state treasurer and an Iraq War veteran, lost to Brown in 2012. And some Republicans clearly aren’t eager for a second go-round, with Tiberi and Kasich declining to endorse him.
Republicans aren’t quite sure what to make of the venture capitalist and “Hillbilly Elegy” author, who just returned to his home state and is considering a run.
A member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, Tiberi had raised money in preparation for a statewide run for years and has built up a $5 million war chest.
Pennsylvania
Casey is the son of a beloved former governor, but has moved aggressively to the left during the Trump era, hoping to excite the state’s liberal base.
Republican recruits
Bartos, a little-known real estate developer who could put some of his own money toward a run, has attracted A-list political consultants for his bid.
Trump has personally encouraged Barletta, an anti-illegal immigration hawk since his days as a small city mayor, to run for Senate.
Kelly, another early Trump ally, has ruled out a run for governor. But he’s still considering a Senate bid.
Meehan was the initial pick of establishment Republicans, but he said he wanted to focus on his work in the House, including Obamacare repeal and tax reform.
West Virginia
Trump won West Virginia by 42 points, but Manchin’s personal brand and moderate credentials are unmatched. He’s repeatedly won statewide in gubernatorial and Senate elections.
Republican recruits
Jenkins, a Democratic state legislator-turned-GOP congressman, is the gaffe-free preferred pick of national Republicans.
Morrisey, the state’s attorney general, will be able to brag about repeatedly taking the Obama administration to court. He’s already begun attacking Jenkins’ Democratic past.
Wisconsin
This swing state has been increasingly red in recent years, with Baldwin the only Democrat holding on to statewide office. Baldwin has emphasized Trump-friendly parts of her own platform, including opposition to trade deals, as she’s begun her run for reelection.
Republican recruits
Nicholson, an Iraq War veteran and businessman, would seem to be a perfect candidate and has already attracted a major donor to seed a super PAC with $2 million. There’s one major (primary) problem: He’s a former president of the College Democrats of America.
Hovde, an investment manager, finished a strong second to former Gov. Tommy Thompson in the 2012 GOP primary to face Baldwin. He’s considering a second run at the office, and could contribute his own money toward a bid.
Vukmir, a registered nurse, won a recent straw poll of GOP activists.
The “Real World” star-turned-congressman opted not to run, saying he couldn’t leave his young family, which includes eight children.
The top target for Republicans after Duffy, Schneider, a trucking company heiress with a Ph.D. in social work, would’ve been able to self-fund a bid. But she also cited her young family as a reason not to make a bid.
Copy edited by Sushant Sagar.