Senate

Senate GOP candidate problems: The rundown

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There isn’t a state on the Senate map where national Republicans are facing their dream candidate scenario. In seven of the eight most competitive states in 2018, either a top candidate has turned them down, two candidates are staring at a potentially messy primary, or both. In the eighth, Florida, Gov. Rick Scott is keeping them waiting. Here’s POLITICO’s (incomplete) rundown of the GOP candidate situation in eight states won by Trump with incumbent Democratic Senators.

Related Story: Senate GOP recruiting slow-going for 2018.

Florida

Bill Nelson

Nelson, a Florida institution, has been in elected or appointed office since 1973. He’s the only remaining elected statewide Democrat in Florida, but has carved out a moderate image.

Republican recruits

Rick Scott

Scott, the state’s two-term governor, is essentially the sole focus of GOP recruiting efforts in Florida. He’s a rare candidate with both the name identification and the fundraising prowess to compete against an incumbent.

Indiana

Joe Donnelly

Donnelly was another Democrat who benefited from weak 2012 opposition, but hopes his moderate image can protect him in a state Trump easily conquered.

Republican recruits

Luke Messer

Messer, one of two congressmen all-but-certain to enter the race against Donnelly, has assembled a top-notch fundraising team, including Greg Pence, brother of Vice President Mike Pence.

Todd Rokita

Rokita is also almost certainly a candidate, and has name identification advantage after serving two terms as secretary of state.

Missouri

Claire McCaskill

Trump won the Show-Me State by 19 percentage points, but McCaskill, with the help of a terrible GOP candidate, had already defied expectations and won reelection here in 2012.

Republican recruits

Austin Petersen

Petersen, who ran for the Libertarian Party’s presidential nomination in 2016, officially announced a GOP bid for Senate earlier this week.

Josh Hawley

The state’s 37-year-old attorney general is the GOP’s new top recruiting target. While’s he been in office less than a year, he helped argue the Hobby Lobby case before the Supreme Court while in private practice.

Vicky Hartzler

Hartzler, a more conservative congresswoman than Wagner, isn’t ruling out a Senate run of her own. She could attempt to run to Hawley’s right in a primary.

Ann Wagner

Since winning election to the House in 2012, Wagner had been expected to challenge McCaskill. But GOP insiders in the state prefer Hawley and slowly pushed her out of the race.

Montana

Jon Tester

Tester, the DSCC chairman in the previous cycle, won his seat in 2006 and was reelected in 2012. Tester is known for keeping close eyes on his state, and still works his ranch in Montana.

Republican recruits

Troy Downing

Downing, a self-storage company CEO, Air Force veteran and friend of Zinke’s, has already announced a bid. But both his California roots and his past criticisms of Trump could prove to be a political problem.

Matt Rosendale

Republicans have recently discussed Rosendale, the state treasurer and a real estate developer, as a potential candidate. But he has out-of-state roots that Democrats have used successfully against other Montana Republicans in the past.

Ryan Zinke

Zinke, a former Navy Seal, was national Republicans’ first pick to take on Tester before Trump offered him a job as interior secretary.

Tim Fox

Fox, the state’s attorney general, was the second pick of national Republicans, but he spurned them last month, instead deciding to focus on a 2020 gubernatorial bid.

North Dakota

Heidi Heitkamp

Heitkamp, a former agriculture commissioner, narrowly defeated Rep. Rick Berg in 2012 even as Mitt Romney defeated President Barack Obama by 20 percentage points.

Republican recruits

Kevin Cramer

Cramer has won statewide before and is the obvious pick to battle Heitkamp, but Republicans worry about his propensity for cringeworthy comments.

Tom Campbell

Campbell, a state senator, has said he’ll run for Senate if Cramer doesn’t, and run for Cramer’s seat in the House if he does.

Ohio

Sherrod Brown

Brown, a populist beloved by unions, is considered a potential 2020 presidential nominee.

Republican recruits

Josh Mandel

Mandel, the state treasurer and an Iraq War veteran, lost to Brown in 2012. And some Republicans clearly aren’t eager for a second go-round, with Tiberi and Kasich declining to endorse him.

J.D. Vance

Republicans aren’t quite sure what to make of the venture capitalist and “Hillbilly Elegy” author, who just returned to his home state and is considering a run.

Pat Tiberi

A member of the powerful House Ways and Means Committee, Tiberi had raised money in preparation for a statewide run for years and has built up a $5 million war chest.

Pennsylvania

Bob Casey

Casey is the son of a beloved former governor, but has moved aggressively to the left during the Trump era, hoping to excite the state’s liberal base.

Republican recruits

Jeff Bartos

Bartos, a little-known real estate developer who could put some of his own money toward a run, has attracted A-list political consultants for his bid.

Lou Barletta

Trump has personally encouraged Barletta, an anti-illegal immigration hawk since his days as a small city mayor, to run for Senate.

Mike Kelly

Kelly, another early Trump ally, has ruled out a run for governor. But he’s still considering a Senate bid.

Pat Meehan

Meehan was the initial pick of establishment Republicans, but he said he wanted to focus on his work in the House, including Obamacare repeal and tax reform.

West Virginia

Joe Manchin

Trump won West Virginia by 42 points, but Manchin’s personal brand and moderate credentials are unmatched. He’s repeatedly won statewide in gubernatorial and Senate elections.

Republican recruits

Evan Jenkins

Jenkins, a Democratic state legislator-turned-GOP congressman, is the gaffe-free preferred pick of national Republicans.

Patrick Morrisey

Morrisey, the state’s attorney general, will be able to brag about repeatedly taking the Obama administration to court. He’s already begun attacking Jenkins’ Democratic past.

Wisconsin

Tammy Baldwin

This swing state has been increasingly red in recent years, with Baldwin the only Democrat holding on to statewide office. Baldwin has emphasized Trump-friendly parts of her own platform, including opposition to trade deals, as she’s begun her run for reelection.

Republican recruits

Kevin Nicholson

Nicholson, an Iraq War veteran and businessman, would seem to be  a perfect candidate and has already attracted a major donor to seed a super PAC with $2 million. There’s one major (primary) problem: He’s a former president of the College Democrats of America.

Eric Hovde

Hovde, an investment manager, finished a strong second to former Gov. Tommy Thompson in the 2012 GOP primary to face Baldwin. He’s considering a second run at the office, and could contribute his own money toward a bid.

Leah Vukmir

Vukmir, a registered nurse, won a recent straw poll of GOP activists.

Sean Duffy

The “Real World” star-turned-congressman opted not to run, saying he couldn’t leave his young family, which includes eight children.

Nicole Schneider

The top target for Republicans after Duffy, Schneider, a trucking company heiress with a Ph.D. in social work, would’ve been able to self-fund a bid. But she also cited her young family as a reason not to make a bid.

Copy edited by Sushant Sagar.