Report: Violent crime in San Diego County rose in early 2021, but not all crimes

Violent crime in San Diego County increased 14 percent in the first half of 2021 over the same period last year, with fewer homicides and robberies but more rapes and aggravated assaults, according to a report released Thursday.

The region’s violent crime rate — 3.64 per 1,000 residents — was the second highest it’s been over the same six-month period in each of the past 10 years, according to the report by the San Diego Association of Governments, known as SANDAG.

In the city of San Diego, violent crime increased 20 percent, although the city historically has been one of the safest in the U.S.

“It is important to note that 2020 was an unprecedented year, as people stayed home and some opportunities for some crimes to be committed decreased and others increased,” said Cynthia Burke, SANDAG’s director of research and program management.

She pointed to rape as an example of a crime of opportunity, saying fluctuations in the number of reported rapes — which decreased 20 percent from 2019 to 2020, then increased 23 percent in 2021 — could align with lockdowns that largely kept people inside.

The study compared crime in the first six months of 2021 with the same time period in 2020 and in 2019, a year before the COVID-19 pandemic struck.

According to the mid-year report, among violent crimes across the county:

• There were fewer homicides in 2021 than in 2020 but more than in 2019; there were 48 homicides in 2021, 54 in 2020 and 38 in 2019;
• Aggravated assault increased less than 1 percent from 2019 to 2020, then increased 20 percent in 2021;
• Robberies decreased 10 percent from 2019 to 2020, then decreased 7 percent in 2021;

In an interview, Burke highlighted the use of firearms in violent crimes. In the first six months of 2021, 60 percent of homicides, 18 percent of robberies and 18 percent of aggravated assaults involved a gun.

“I think acknowledging firearm violence we see going on is important,” she said.

According to the report, the number of property crimes — which includes burglary, larceny and vehicle theft — increased the first six months of 2021 compared to last year but was lower than in 2019.

More recently — between April and June 2021 — residential burglaries increased, while non-residential burglaries decreased.

According to the report, residential burglaries in 2021 decreased 22 percent compared to 2019 and decreased 4 percent compared to 2020. In 2021, the number of residential burglaries was lower each month through April than the same period in 2020 and 2019, with more reported in May and June than in the same two months in 2020. That trend may be consistent with more people returning to work and engaging in activities outside of their home, according to researchers.

Non-residential burglaries in 2021 increased 7 percent compared to 2019 and decreased 2 percent compared to 2020. In 2021, the number of non-residential burglaries was higher in January and February than in the same months in 2020 and 2019, then dropped, with fewer between April and June than in the same months in 2020 and 2019. Burke said the decrease may align with the re-opening of businesses.

The report also looked at hate crimes. In the first half of 2021, 45 hate crimes were reported — just one shy of the tally at the mid-year point in 2020. The most common motive recorded for hate crimes in 2020 and 2021 was race, with a greater percentage of Asian victims (18 percent) in 2021 than in 2020 (6 percent).

The report said the figures were consistent with national trends, which indicated hate crimes against Asians increased after the start of the pandemic. Experts say Asians and Pacific Islanders were treated as scapegoats because the coronavirus originated in China.

Burke said it is important to keep an eye on the pandemic’s long-term impacts on the underlying causes of crime, such as mental health and substance abuse. “It’s interesting thinking about what the long-term psychological effects may be,” she said in an interview.

In a statement, she said: “As our communities continue to recover, it is critical to highlight the importance of reporting crimes to local law enforcement agencies and to ensure we make resources readily available to those who have been victims of a crime.”