Tourist responses to climate change: Potential impacts and adaptation in Florida's coastal destinations
Introduction
Some of the most vulnerable areas across the world have already started experiencing the consequences of climate change, with action to deal with them long overdue. The effects of climate change on coastal areas generate severe consequences for the tourism industry. However, despite the high value of tourism properties and economic activities in coastal areas, there remains a paucity of tourism studies related to the impacts of climate change and sea level rise in coastal tourism destinations (Scott, Hall, & Gössling, 2012).
Florida, one of the most visited tourist destinations in the world, holds one of the most ‘unenviable’ positions in terms of its vulnerability to climate change with the effects already visible, particularly on its coastal areas (Noss, 2011). Climate change and rising sea levels constitute a threat for the sustainability of Florida's coastal resources by increasing the likelihood of flooding, inundation of low-lying lands, saltwater intrusion, and erosion of beaches and barrier islands (Harrington & Walton, 2008). The state's low-lying lands and its economy concentrated in coastal areas make it particularly vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise (SLR). A study by Hauer, Evans, and Mishra (2016) found that previous projections that failed to incorporate population growth in sea level rise impacts hugely underestimated the number of people at risk and the cost of protecting them. Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) conservative estimate of three feet (about 0.9 m) sea level rise by 2100, 1.2 million people projected to live in Florida's coastal areas are expected to be at risk of flooding from sea level rise (Hauer et al., 2016).
Scott et al. (2012) emphasize the importance of understanding the implications of climate change for tourist demand patterns, and how this constitutes a research priority in the tourism field. As pointed out by De Freitas (2005), the discretionary nature of tourism means that participation will decline as discomfort and dissatisfaction increase. Subsequently, changes in the spatial and temporal features of climate resources will produce significant effects for tourism demand at different levels. That will happen both as a consequence of changing conditions at the destination level and climatic variables perceived as less or more comfortable by visitors (Gössling & Hall, 2006; Gössling, Scott, Hall, Ceron, & Dubois, 2012). In this situation, more insights are necessary into tourists' perceptions in order to understand whether climate change will lead to shifting tourism demand. This is particularly relevant for destinations that are already warm, like Florida. If the perception of what is already perceived as a ‘warm’ destination changes to ‘too warm’, then it is when travel flows might suddenly change (Gössling & Hall, 2006). A favorable climate and appealing waterfront are main attractions that draw tourists to Florida. The increase of storms, hurricanes and sea level rise in Florida's coastal areas has the power to cause long-term economic impacts to the state's tourism industry and to its attractiveness as a tourism destination (Repetto, 2012).
In spite of the negative consequences of climate change impacts on coastal destinations, timing and effective adaptation and mitigation are vital in determining the extent of climate change impacts (Borisova, Breuer, & Carriker, 2008). Adaptation can be defined as “those actions or activities that people undertake, individually or collectively, to accommodate, cope with, or benefit from, the effects of climate change, including changes in climate variability and extremes” (Becken & Hay, 2007, p. 225). In Florida, with nearly 10% of its land area lying at less than 1 m above sea level, adaptation is especially critical (Noss, 2011). Locally, communities across Florida are developing action plans, investing in storm water pumps, upgrading storm water and sewer systems, and revising building codes. However, these expensive measures to protect homes, businesses, and infrastructure will only serve as a temporary expedient unless climate change is addressed at a wider level (Florida Majors, 2016). Jopp, DeLacy, and Mair (2010) stressed the fact that since the final decision whether to travel to a destination or not is made by individual tourists, tourists are key stakeholders in any adaptation process. Therefore, it is essential to consider and understand their attitudes towards proposed adaptation options and how different adaptation options may affect the appeal of the destination for the tourists.
Despite the urgency for tourism destinations to adapt to climate change, to date, no studies have examined which adaptation measures can prevent a reduction in tourism demand from the viewpoint of the tourists. In an attempt to fill this gap, this study presents the responses, in terms of preferences and visitation intentions, of tourists who have previously visited Florida. The aim of this study is to examine how projected climate change impacts could affect tourism visitation in Florida, and how potential seasonal and geographical shifts in demand could be mitigated through the implementation of adaptation measures at the destination level.
Section snippets
Climate change and coastal destinations: impacts and adaptation
Sea level rise is a crucial phenomenon associated to climate change. Over the 21st Century, the global mean sea level will very likely continue to rise due to increased ocean warming and loss of mass from glaciers and ice sheets (Hartmann et al., 2013). While the exact magnitude of global sea level rise and regional variability remains uncertain, sea level rise is considered to be one of the most certain consequences of anthropogenic climate change (Hartmann et al., 2013). The impacts of rising
Research design
By gathering the viewpoint of the visitors, this study contributes to the stream of stated preferences studies analyzing weather and climate preferences of tourists and defining optimal or unacceptable conditions. There are two different climate or weather circumstances to which the tourist may react and that in turn will affect decisions. The first one is based on the climate conditions anticipated by the tourist based on the image of the destination and on weather forecasts; the second one is
Demographics/profile of respondents
The demographic profile of respondents showed a balanced sample in terms of gender, an age distribution skewed toward the younger end, and a fairly high education level. The median annual income was lower than $50,000, with the sample mostly divided into respondents who were single and respondents who were married or in a domestic partnership. In terms of ethnicity and residence, the majority of respondents were white and lived in the United States. About half of the sample indicated their
Discussion
Many coastal tourism destinations depend on favorable climatic conditions, such as ample sunshine, no precipitation and no wind. The study findings confirm that climate is a key factor considered by tourists, either consciously or subconsciously, during travel planning (Scott et al., 2008). Those surveyed in this study considered climate conditions very important in selecting the beach/coastal destinations visited in Florida. Ample sunshine, sand and water quality, beach size, and comfortable
Conclusion
Despite the urgency for tourism destinations to adapt to climate change, prior to this study, no research had previously examined the perspective of the tourists with regard to how coastal destinations have to adapt if tourists are to feel comfortable despite the impacts of climate change. The examination of the tourist perspective attempted to further our knowledge of how potential seasonal and geographic shifts in tourism demand could be mitigated by the implementation of adaptation measures
Dr. Roberta Atzori is Assistant Professor at California State University, Monterey Bay, where she teaches and conducts research within the Sustainable Hospitality Management Program. Her research interests include sustainable tourism and hospitality, and climate change mitigation and adaptation in tourism destinations and hospitality businesses. She has published several journal articles and book chapters and has spoken at numerous international conferences across the world.
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Dr. Roberta Atzori is Assistant Professor at California State University, Monterey Bay, where she teaches and conducts research within the Sustainable Hospitality Management Program. Her research interests include sustainable tourism and hospitality, and climate change mitigation and adaptation in tourism destinations and hospitality businesses. She has published several journal articles and book chapters and has spoken at numerous international conferences across the world.
Dr. Alan Fyall is Orange County Endowed Professor of Tourism Marketing at the Rosen College of Hospitality Management, University of Central Florida. He has published widely in the areas of tourism and destination marketing and management including 21 books and over 150 journal articles and book chapters. Dr. Fyall is a former Member of the Bournemouth Tourism Management Board (DMO) and has conducted numerous consulting and applied research projects for clients in the UK, European Union, Africa, the Caribbean and South East Asia. He is Editor of Elsevier's Journal of Destination Marketing & Management and sits on the editorial boards of many leading journals.
Dr. Graham Miller is the Executive Dean of the Faculty of Arts and Social Science at the University of Surrey, where he conducts research into business ethics, sustainable tourism and corporate social responsibility. He acts in an editorial capacity for several prestigious tourism journals and contributes his expertise to government bodies, trade associations and the UN.