Tourist responses to climate change: Potential impacts and adaptation in Florida's coastal destinations

Highlights

• Tourists are attracted to the coasts of Florida mainly for its environmental features.

• Tourists would switch time and place of visitation in a scenario of changed climate.

• Tourists would reconsider their intentions if adaptation measures were in place.

Abstract

Florida, one of the world's most visited tourist destinations, holds one of the most vulnerable positions as a result of climate change. Through a quantitative survey, this study gathered the responses of 432 tourists who had previously visited Florida, with a hypothetical scenario of changed climatic conditions. The examination of the tourist perspective showed the presence of ample sunshine and factors related to beach comfort as the reasons for choosing the destination. In a scenario were beaches disappear and tropical diseases become more widespread, the majority of respondents stated they would choose a different destination. However, respondents would reconsider their intentions if adaptation measures such as reduced prices, coastal habitat conservation and measures to protect beaches from erosion and coastal areas from inundation were in place. The findings suggest that seasonal and geographic shifts in tourism demand could be mitigated by the implementation of adaptation measures at the destination level.

Introduction

Some of the most vulnerable areas across the world have already started experiencing the consequences of climate change, with action to deal with them long overdue. The effects of climate change on coastal areas generate severe consequences for the tourism industry. However, despite the high value of tourism properties and economic activities in coastal areas, there remains a paucity of tourism studies related to the impacts of climate change and sea level rise in coastal tourism destinations (Scott, Hall, & Gössling, 2012).

Florida, one of the most visited tourist destinations in the world, holds one of the most ‘unenviable’ positions in terms of its vulnerability to climate change with the effects already visible, particularly on its coastal areas (Noss, 2011). Climate change and rising sea levels constitute a threat for the sustainability of Florida's coastal resources by increasing the likelihood of flooding, inundation of low-lying lands, saltwater intrusion, and erosion of beaches and barrier islands (Harrington & Walton, 2008). The state's low-lying lands and its economy concentrated in coastal areas make it particularly vulnerable to climate change and sea level rise (SLR). A study by Hauer, Evans, and Mishra (2016) found that previous projections that failed to incorporate population growth in sea level rise impacts hugely underestimated the number of people at risk and the cost of protecting them. Based on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) conservative estimate of three feet (about 0.9 m) sea level rise by 2100, 1.2 million people projected to live in Florida's coastal areas are expected to be at risk of flooding from sea level rise (Hauer et al., 2016).

Scott et al. (2012) emphasize the importance of understanding the implications of climate change for tourist demand patterns, and how this constitutes a research priority in the tourism field. As pointed out by De Freitas (2005), the discretionary nature of tourism means that participation will decline as discomfort and dissatisfaction increase. Subsequently, changes in the spatial and temporal features of climate resources will produce significant effects for tourism demand at different levels. That will happen both as a consequence of changing conditions at the destination level and climatic variables perceived as less or more comfortable by visitors (Gössling & Hall, 2006; Gössling, Scott, Hall, Ceron, & Dubois, 2012). In this situation, more insights are necessary into tourists' perceptions in order to understand whether climate change will lead to shifting tourism demand. This is particularly relevant for destinations that are already warm, like Florida. If the perception of what is already perceived as a ‘warm’ destination changes to ‘too warm’, then it is when travel flows might suddenly change (Gössling & Hall, 2006). A favorable climate and appealing waterfront are main attractions that draw tourists to Florida. The increase of storms, hurricanes and sea level rise in Florida's coastal areas has the power to cause long-term economic impacts to the state's tourism industry and to its attractiveness as a tourism destination (Repetto, 2012).

In spite of the negative consequences of climate change impacts on coastal destinations, timing and effective adaptation and mitigation are vital in determining the extent of climate change impacts (Borisova, Breuer, & Carriker, 2008). Adaptation can be defined as “those actions or activities that people undertake, individually or collectively, to accommodate, cope with, or benefit from, the effects of climate change, including changes in climate variability and extremes” (Becken & Hay, 2007, p. 225). In Florida, with nearly 10% of its land area lying at less than 1 m above sea level, adaptation is especially critical (Noss, 2011). Locally, communities across Florida are developing action plans, investing in storm water pumps, upgrading storm water and sewer systems, and revising building codes. However, these expensive measures to protect homes, businesses, and infrastructure will only serve as a temporary expedient unless climate change is addressed at a wider level (Florida Majors, 2016). Jopp, DeLacy, and Mair (2010) stressed the fact that since the final decision whether to travel to a destination or not is made by individual tourists, tourists are key stakeholders in any adaptation process. Therefore, it is essential to consider and understand their attitudes towards proposed adaptation options and how different adaptation options may affect the appeal of the destination for the tourists.

Despite the urgency for tourism destinations to adapt to climate change, to date, no studies have examined which adaptation measures can prevent a reduction in tourism demand from the viewpoint of the tourists. In an attempt to fill this gap, this study presents the responses, in terms of preferences and visitation intentions, of tourists who have previously visited Florida. The aim of this study is to examine how projected climate change impacts could affect tourism visitation in Florida, and how potential seasonal and geographical shifts in demand could be mitigated through the implementation of adaptation measures at the destination level.