Early voting surpasses 1 million in Tennessee as turnout remains at historic level

Joey Garrison
The Tennessean

Drawn to the polls by a pair of competitive statewide elections, more than 1 million people have now voted early in the midterm election in Tennessee as turnout remains historically strong across the state.

About 75 people were in line before doors opened for early voting Wednesday, Oct. 19, at the Howard Office Building   on 2nd Ave in Nashville

Through 11 days of early voting that passed Monday, 1,062,596 had voted early in Tennessee, crushing turnout from the midterm election in 2014 and just below the pace set in the 2016 presidential election. The state surpassed the 1 million mark Monday. 

More than 26 percent of all active registered voters in Tennessee have voted early so far.

"It's definitely historic for a midterm and we're seeing high turnout throughout all parts of the state," said Mark Goins, coordinator of elections for the Tennessee Secretary of State.

Turnout nearly three times 2014 level

Early voting runs through Thursday ahead of next Tuesday's election.

Tennessee's ballot is headlined by two competitive open statewide races for the first time since 2006. Republican Marsha Blackburn is squared off against Democrat Phil Bredesen for U.S. Senate and Democrat Karl Dean is running against Republican Bill Lee for governor.

More:Early voting underway in Tennessee. Here's what you need to know.

At this same point during the 2014 election — which featured Gov. Bill Haslam and Sen. Lamar Alexander's heavily favored reelection bids against nominal opponents — 392,710 people had voted. This year's turnout is nearly three times that mark.

The 2016 presidential election won by President Donald Trump at this same juncture had 1,292,387 early voters in Tennessee, which is 18 percent more than the turnout of this year's midterm increase.

Historically, however, there's an even larger gap between midterm and presidential turnout. 

Williamson, Davidson counties see big turnout increases

This year, Fentress County has seen the biggest turnout spike from 2014, a 243.39 percent increase through the first 11 days of early voting, followed closely by Williamson County, a wealthy suburb south of Nashville, at 243.37 percent.

The fourth largest spike belongs to Davidson County — home of Nashville and one of the state's largest population centers — at 228 percent percent.

Nashville has had 116,790 people vote early through Monday, up from 36,847 at this same point in 2014 and slightly below the 131,840 at this point in 2016. 

Turnout through the first 11 days of voting in 2018 compared to 2014.

Williamson, where Blackburn and Lee reside, has long been a Republican hotbed. 

But the sizable bounce for Davidson is encouraging news for Democrats who need large turnout in Democratic-heavy Nashville and Memphis to have a chance for U.S. Senate or governor. Shelby County's turnout has increased 185.9 percent from 2014.

Other counties with large increases between 2014 and this year are Sequatchie, a 218 percent increase; Union, a 208.8  percent increase; and Polk, a 210.6 percent increase.

Williamson, Wilson, Davidson Rutherford in top 10 by percentage

Through the first 10 days of early voting the five counties with the highest turnout by percentage of registered votes is Loudon, 37.4 percent; Williamson, 34.1 percent; Wilson, 31.4 percent; Unicoi, 29.9 percent; and Cumberland, 28.8 percent.

Wilson and Williamson counties are two of Nashville's exploding suburbs, which include a large concentration of college-educated Republicans and independents who could be pivotal in the outcome of the U.S. Senate race.

Davidson County is 8th in turnout by percentage, with 27.8 percent, Rutherford 10th, 27.6 percent; Knox 12th, 26.8 percent; Shelby, 55th, 21,4 percent; and Hamilton 81st, 18.1 percent. Last in turnout is Bledsoe, 10.6 percent.

Reach Joey Garrison at 615-259-8236, jgarrison@tennessean.com and on Twitter @joeygarrison.