Midterms: Democrats have more final advertising dollars in six of the nine hottest Senate races
Maureen Groppe
WASHINGTON – Democrats headed into the final weeks of the midterm elections with more advertising power in six of the nine most competitive Senate races, according to a USA TODAY analysis of data from Kantar Media/CMAG, a nonpartisan firm that tracks television advertising.
The biggest advantage is in West Virginia, where Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin’s side is on track to spend nearly three times as much on radio and television ads between Oct. 21 and Nov. 6 than Republican challenger Patrick Morrisey and his allies.
Democrats also have an edge in ad spending in Arizona, Florida, Montana, Nevada and North Dakota. But Republicans are ahead in Indiana, Missouri and Tennessee.
Democrats need all the advantages they can get because they’re defending incumbents in most of the 35 Senate races on the ballot next month. That includes 10 Senate Democrats fighting to survive in states President Donald Trump won in the 2016 presidential race.
Republicans now control the Senate by the narrowest of margins. Political handicappers think the GOP could add to their 51-49 seat margin, despite a political environment that otherwise favors Democrats.
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“This is a tough, tough map for Democrats,” said Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. “If they can even hold 49 seats, they will be very, very lucky.”
Democrats can, however, take comfort in fact that Republican challengers haven’t gained traction in the Senate races in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin – states where Trump’s narrow win helped him secure his electoral college victory.
That’s reflected in the final advertising dollars.
In Ohio, for example, Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is on track to spend more than $6 million on advertising between Sept. 30 and Nov. 6. Republican challenger Jim Renacci had less than $500,000 booked.
In Wisconsin, where Trump held a rally for Republican candidates Wednesday, Senate candidate Leah Vukmir had no advertising booked for the final two weeks as of Oct. 23. Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin had more than $2 million in ads scheduled to air from Oct. 21 through the election.
But Democrats have big challenges defending incumbents in states such as North Dakota, Missouri and Indiana that Trump won by double digits.
In those states, and others that will decide control of the Senate, the winner won’t necessarily be the candidate who has spent the most. But the figures from the Campaign Media Analysis Group (CMAG) help show how hard the parties are contesting each seat.
The data includes spending on TV ads that aired between Sept. 30 and Oct. 20, as well as airtime reserved by candidates or outside groups as of Oct. 23. Spending can change as parties and campaigns adjust their strategies.
In addition, the same amount of dollars can buy different amounts of ads, depending on the markets, how crowded the airwaves are and who is sponsoring it. For example, candidates get cheaper rates than super PACs.
Here’s what the figures show in nine of the top races.
Arizona
Total ad spending for Democrat Krysten Sinema Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $18 million
Total ad spending for Republican Martha McSally Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $16.3 million
The hard-fought race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake is also close on advertising spending, although Sinema’s side is on track to spend 17 percent more in the final two weeks. While the Senate Democrats’ campaign committee has booked ads through the election, its GOP counterpart stopped after mid-October. But a GOP super PAC is spending $5 million on behalf of McSally in the final two weeks. The “Defend Arizona” super PAC, which has gotten funding from another PAC with ties to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., has paid for about two-thirds of ad spending on McSally’s side in the final month.
Florida
Total ad spending for Democrat Bill Nelson Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $35.7 million
Total ad spending for Republican Rick Scott Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $30.5 million
Scott, who is largely self-funding his challenge to Nelson, has paid for more advertising than the incumbent. But Democratic super PACs, which are responsible for about two-thirds of the spending on Nelson’s side, are giving him the overall advantage. Nelson’s team has spent more overall and is on track to spend 38 percent more in the final two weeks.
Indiana
Total ad spending for Democrat Joe Donnelly Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $17.7 million
Total ad spending for Republican Mike Braun Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $18.7 million
Indiana is one of the few close Senate races where the challenger’s side is spending more on advertising. Braun’s team is spending about $1 million more in October, including about 27 percent more in the final two weeks. That’s despite the fact that the Senate Democrats’ campaign arm has booked nearly $3 million more in advertising than their Republican counterpart. But Braun is outspending Donnelly and has gotten significant help from Republican super PACs, as well as help from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Rifle Association.
Missouri
Total ad spending for Democrat Claire McCaskill Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $18.6 million
Total ad spending for Republican Josh Hawley Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $17.5 million
Advertising dollars are close in one of the Democratic-held seats that could flip next month. McCaskill’s side is on track to spend about $1 million more since the end of September, but Hawley’s side booked nearly $1 million more in the final two weeks. Super PACs are dominating the airwaves. The super PACs helping McCaskill are spending 70 percent more than she is in the final month. Republican super PACs could spend more than three times as much as Hawley.
Montana
Total ad spending for Democrat Jon Tester Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $8.7 million
Total ad spending for Republican Matt Rosendale Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $3 million
Tester’s team has a large advantage overall and is on track to spend nearly three times as much as Rosendale's team in the final two weeks. Tester's own campaign is spending more than twice what Rosendale's is. But most of the money on both sides is coming from super PACs. In fact, Rosendale had no advertising booked after Oct. 27, according to figures pulled on Oct. 23. And the Senate GOP campaign committee hadn’t purchased any TV ads in October. But GOP super PACs booked more than $2 million in ads for the final two weeks.
Nevada
Total ad spending for Democrat Jacky Rosen Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $28 million
Total ad spending for Republican Dean Heller Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $16.3 million
Despite being the challenger, Rosen and her supporters are spending about $12 million more overall in October than Heller and are on track to spend nearly twice as much in the last two weeks. Rosen herself is outspending Heller, and the campaign arm of Senate Democrats is spending $7.5 million compared to the $1.7 million spent by Senate Republicans' committee, which hasn’t booked ads after early October. Super PAC spending, on the other hand, is pretty even.
North Dakota
Total ad spending for Democrat Heidi Heitkamp Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $4.6 million
Total ad spending for Republican Kevin Cramer Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $3 million
Heitkamp is viewed as the Democratic incumbent most likely to lose re-election, but her team isn’t ceding the airwaves. Heitkamp’s side is on track to spend about $1 million more in the final two weeks with help from outside groups. Senate Democrats’ campaign committee has been outspending their GOP counterpart in North Dakota, but GOP super PACs have a slight advantage over Democratic super PACs. Cramer, in fact, is responsible for only about 10 percent of the advertising dollars on his side. Senate Leadership Fund has put up nearly two-thirds of the funding.
Tennessee
Total ad spending for Democrat Phil Bredesen Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $13.6 million
Total ad spending for Republican Marsha Blackburn Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $16.6 million
Republicans have the ad spending advantage in the race to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Bob Corker, on track to spend nearly 60 percent more in the final two weeks. That’s despite the fact that Bredesen, who is partly self-funding his campaign, is spending more on advertising than Blackburn in the final month. But super PACs and other outsiders account for most of the ad spending on both sides – and Blackburn’s allies are spending more. Plus, the Senate Democrats’ campaign committee has not bought ads in Tennessee while Senate Republicans' campaign arm spent $1.2 million in the first part of the month.
West Virginia
Total ad spending for Democrat Joe Manchin Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $8.5 million
Total ad spending for Republican Patrick Morrisey Sept. 30-Nov. 6: $5.2 million
Although Manchin represents a state Trump won by an astounding 42 points, his advertising advantage could help the Democrat pull off a victory. Manchin’s side is spending about $3 million more in the final two weeks. The campaign arm of Senate Republicans has not spent much in West Virginia although the GOP super PAC aligned with McConnell booked ads through the election.
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