Top allies of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell are diving into the midterm elections with an initial fall television advertising reservation of nearly $25 million.
Senate Leadership Fund, financed by wealthy campaign contributors cultivated by the Kentucky Republican, is placing buys in Missouri, Nevada, and North Dakota in a bid to pad the GOP’s thin 51-49 majority. The group plans tens of millions more in advertising to begin after Labor Day, but is delaying to guard its November strategy.
President Trump’s job approval ratings, broadly, are low and the political atmosphere for Republicans is challenging. But the president’s numbers are above 50 percent in states where the GOP is on offense in Senate races, giving the party a chance to overperform in the midterm elections.
Senate Leadership Fund was set to invest $10.5 million in Missouri, where presumptive Republican nominee, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, is challenging vulnerable Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill. The group also was targeting Democratic Sen. Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota with a $2.3 million purchase; she faces a stiff challenge from Rep. Kevin Cramer, a Republican.
Missouri and North Dakota are part of a healthy list of pickup opportunities afforded to Senate Republicans by a favorable 2018 map in which 10 Democrat-held seats are up for election in states won by Trump two years ago. About a third of the Senate’s 100 seats are up for election every two years.
Nevada, where Senate Leadership Fund plans to spend $11.2 million, is among the Republican Party’s few defensive positions on the map. Rep. Jacky Rosen, D-Nev., is threatening Republican Sen. Dean Heller, who is running for a second full term in a diverse state that Trump lost narrowly to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016.
Senate Leadership Fund, in unveiling its fall advertising strategy in increments, has taken a different tactical approach than its counterpart super PAC, Senate Majority PAC.
The Democratic super PAC, aligned with Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., issued a more expansive “first wave” $80 million slate of fall advertising across nine states: Arizona, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Montana, Nevada, North Dakota, Tennessee, and West Virginia.
That list offers clues to where Senate Leadership Fund is likely to spend its money. Arizona and Tennessee amount to the only other offensive opportunities Democrats have besides Nevada. The other six states on Senate Majority PAC’s list account for where Republicans see their brightest pickup opportunities.
Neither Senate Leadership Fund nor Senate Majority PAC are in stand-down mode.
The Republican super PAC is already active in West Virginia and Indiana, where Democratic Sen. Joe Donnelly is in trouble against Republican businessman and former state legislator Mike Braun. The Democratic super PAC has been spending on advertising in Florida, where Republican Gov. Rick Scott is challenging Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson; in Montana, where state Auditor Matt Rosendale is challenging Democratic Sen. Jon Tester; and in Indiana and North Dakota.
