Top Republicans lower expectations in West Virginia as Joe Manchin proves formidable

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Top Republicans are lowering expectations in West Virginia, where GOP Senate nominee state Attorney General Patrick Morrisey is struggling against Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin.

Morrisey isn’t capitalizing on President Trump’s popularity in the Appalachian battleground. His New Jersey roots and stint as a Washington lobbyist, although not a hindrance in two campaigns for attorney general, aren’t playing well versus Manchin. The former governor is affectionately known at home as “Joe,” a relationship worth a lot of votes in targeted, top-of-the-ticket contests like this.

Morrisey, with limited resources, hasn’t raised enough to finance the sort of positive, biographical advertising that might recast his image and put a dent in Manchin’s crucial likability advantage.

“While Pat is a very good candidate and a proven statewide winner, I think a lot of Republicans underestimated Manchin’s popularity. He was the state’s comforter-in-chief and people remember his compassion during some of the mine disasters,” Jim Dornan, a Republican operative, told the Washington Examiner. “Never underestimate Uncle Joe.”

Dornan managed the campaign of the Republican who ran against Manchin in 2010, the midterm election that saw GOP gain seven Senate seats and win control of the House in a massive backlash against President Barack Obama.

With 55 days until Election Day, Republicans aren’t ready to give up on Morrisey, a dogged politician who won a tough first race for attorney general in 2012 and finished on top in a competitive GOP Senate primary this past May. Relatively low advertising rates, combined with a Trump job approval rating that usually clocks in at over 60 percent, make West Virginia a worthwhile investment.

Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC affiliated with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., is on the air with an $800,000 buy; the influential National Rifle Association is putting its grassroots muscle to work for Morrisey; and a super PAC launched specifically to back his campaign, 35th PAC, is expected to be a major player in the campaign. But Trump could be the difference-maker.

He’s already traveled to West Virginia once to rally for Morrisey, an event his campaign says netted a sustained bump in the polls and that continues to pay dividends. Some Republicans argue that the cure for Morrisey’s ills is a second Trump rally. The president’s aggressive personal involvement can help the state attorney general frame the race as an ideological referendum on the White House’s agenda.

“The more this race becomes about Trump, the more Joe Manchin’s in trouble,” a Republican close to the Morrisey campaign said.

After this story was filed, the National Republican Senatorial Committee reached out to the Washington Examiner to communicate the party’s confidence in Morrisey and his campaign. The NRSC has invested $1.7 million worth of television advertising in Morrisey so far, with plenty more planned.

“Patrick Morrisey is running a strong campaign and providing a clear contrast to Joe Manchin and his Washington double talk. West Virginians want a Senator who will stand with President Trump and fight for their values and will elect Morrisey this November,” committee spokesman Bob Salera said.

Morrisey, 50, first ran for Congress 18 years ago in New Jersey, where he was raised, losing his bid for the Republican nomination in the 7th District. Morrisey later went to work as a lobbyist in the nation’s capital. Though a West Virginia resident for more than a decade, Morrisey lives in Jefferson County, about 60 miles outside of downtown Washington.

The close proximity to D.C. isn’t helpful as Morrisey attempts to catch an incumbent whose political base of support is centered in West Virginia coal country. (When the Senate is in session Manchin resides in a luxury yacht anchored on the Potomac River.)

In a pointed lack of faith in Morrisey, America First Action, the super PAC designated by Trump to support his political interests, announced in August plans to invest nearly $500,000 in an open congressional seat in Southern West Virginia. The Republican nominee in the GOP-held 3rd District was struggling, a fact party strategists attributed to weakness at the top of the ticket.

“Republicans have been weirdly dovish on the [West Virginia Senate] race for months now,” a Republican operative said, requesting anonymity in order to speak candidly on internal viewpoints. “Manchin is probably harder to take down than” other Democrats — Sens. Joe Donnelly of Indiana, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Claire McCaskill of Missouri, and Jon Tester of Montana.

Quietly, Republicans concede that Manchin has managed a feat that has eluded his vulnerable colleagues. He has created separation from his party’s liberal leadership on Capitol Hill and preserving the image of a centrist Democrat who works with Trump and isn’t an automatic “no” vote on his agenda.

Manchin last week attended the hearings to consider Trump’s nominee to fill an open slot on the Supreme Court nominee, federal appellate court Judge Brett Kavanaugh, even though he is not a member of the Senate Judiciary Committee. Manchin later distanced himself from the attempts of his Democratic colleagues on the panel to undermine Kavanaugh’s character and sink his confirmation.

“Manchin is running a campaign some Republicans could support,” a GOP strategist said.

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