November Case-Shiller Results & December Forecast: Gathering Speed
Growth in home prices continued to climb in November, gathering speed before the end of the year and setting the stage for a full out sprint in 2021.
- The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index® rose 9.5% year-over-year in November (non-seasonally adjusted), up from 8.4% in September.
- Annual growth was up from August in both the 20-city index (to 9.1%, from 8%) and 10-city index (to 8.8% from 7.6%).
- Phoenix (+13.8%), Seattle (+12.7%), and San Diego (+12.3%) reported the highest year-over-year gains among markets in the 20-city index.
Growth in home prices continued to climb in November, gathering speed before the end of the year and setting the stage for a full out sprint in 2021.
The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 9.5% year-over-year in November. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices almost matched that pace, at 8.8% and 9.1% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in November than in October in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the national, 10- and 20-city indices were each up by 1.4%.
| Zillow Forecast, Released 12/29/20 | Actual Case-Shiller Indices, Released 1/26/21 |
Historical Median Absolute Error* | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
8.4% | 8.8% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.5% | 1.4% | 0.2% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
8.9% | 9.1% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.6% | 1.4% | 0.1% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
9.5% | 9.5% | 0.1% |
| *Calculation of Median Absolute Errors are based on Zillow’s forecasts dating to 2011. The national Case-Shiller forecasts began in 2014. | |||
Buoyed by record-low mortgage rates, which continued to plumb new depths back in November, a wave of eager would-be homebuyers poured into the market, further stoking the competition for homes that has been red-hot since the late spring. Homes flew off the market as a result and prices shot upward at their fastest pace in years. Even as the pandemic accelerated its rapid spread across the country, this fervent market competition has shown few, if any, signs of cooling and is unlikely in the near future. Combined, annual growth in home prices should continue its sharp upward trajectory in the months to come.
Monthly growth in December as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to slow slightly from October in all three main indices, while annual growth is expected to accelerate across the board. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the December S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, February 23.
| Index | Actual Nov. Case-Shiller Change |
Zillow’s Forecast for the Case-Shiller Dec. Indices |
|---|---|---|
| 10-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.5% | 1.3% |
| 10-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
8.4% | 9.5% |
| 20-City Composite, Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.5% | 1.3% |
| 20-City Composite, Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
8.9% | 9.8% |
| U.S. National Month-Over-Month (SA) |
1.6% | 1.3% |
| U.S. National Year-Over-Year (NSA) |
9.5% | 10.3% |
Note: Case-Shiller and Case-Shiller Index are registered trademarks of CoreLogic Solutions, LLC. The statements herein are not endorsed by or provided in association or connection with CoreLogic, LLC.
